By Grigor Hakobyan
Summary:
Since the end of 44 Day War in Artsakh in 2020, and deportations of the entire Armenian population from their ancestral homes in Artsakh, the Armenian government under the Pashinyan administration made multiple public announcements about changing Armenia’s foreign policy orientation toward deeper integration with the West, and about beginning of reforms in the military with the support from the U.S., France and E.U. Unfortunately, very little has been achieved so far. Military reforms appear to occur at a slow pace, and the foreign policy orientation has not undergone significant changes. The corruption in the Armenian military and the government continues to be a major issue, and there are very few achievements in foreign policy to merit any significance.
With the new elections coming up in 2026, nothing is expected to change unless new, effective leaders with sufficient charisma, experience, and public following take the reins of the government in their hands to guide Armenia towards better outcomes. A new Armenia that will possess a superior military, a competent government, an efficient economy, and a dynamic foreign policy. A new Armenia that will be free of criminal oligarchy, free of complete reliance on Russia; Armenia with an active civil society that will have more influence on its own government than a few Russian-connected oligarchs within the country along with former soviet apparatchiks calling shots from Russia.
Background:
As a result of corruption, government incompetence, common public malice and treasonous behavior by the Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and his entourage both in Yerevan and Stepanakert, more than 150,000 Armenians had to leave their ancestral homes in Artsakh, between 2020- 2023, which amounted to an ethnic cleansing and genocide carried out by the Azerbaijani government under the authoritarian leadership of Ilham Aliyev and his Turkish generals. More than 10,000 square kilometers of historical Armenian territory with dozens of centuries-old Armenian churches and monasteries of significant cultural value were lost or destroyed. Additionally, hundreds of square kilometers of territory belonging to the Republic of Armenia fell under Azerbaijani military occupation between 2021-2022, and to this day remain occupied by Azerbaijani troops.
More than 100,000 Armenian refugees from Artsakh became homeless, while the government of Armenia spared no effort to push as many of them as possible out of the country or suppress their dissent towards Pashinyan’s foreign policy of appeasement and one-sided compromises to Azerbaijan. Furthermore, Prime-Minister Pashinyan engaged in hybrid war against its nation by attacking the Armenian cultural identify and historical heritage by replacing cultural symbols, questioning the Armenian Genocide of 1915-1923, attacking the Armenian Constitution and its preamble, the Declaration of Independence, starting a political confrontation with the Armenian Church, and seeking favor in the eyes of Turkish President, Recep Erdogan who threatened the Armenian people with genocide before the resumption of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict in 2020. The Armenian history books do not recall any other Armenian leader, from recent or past history, who hurt his nation as much as Nikol Pashinyan.
Analysis and Recommendations:
In 2018, when Nikol Pashinyan became the new Prime Minister of Armenia, many believed and hoped, based on his promises, that Armenia would eliminate corruption, get rid of the criminal oligarchic system in Armenia, which resembles modern-day feudalism, and move away from its total dependence on Russia towards greater integration with the West. Unfortunately, seven years have passed, and nothing of that sort has happened yet. Armenia’s economy continues to be dependent on Russia, most of its energy needs continue to be met by Russia, Armenia continues to remain part of defunct Russian-led organizations, such as CSTO and CIS, and its military leadership continues to be dominated by generals and high-ranking officers who have received their military education and/or training in former Soviet Union or Russia.
In 2018, when Armenia first began talking about military reforms, the U.S. and Sweden offered to replace Armenia’s outdated soviet aircrafts with modern F-16 and Swedish SAAB Jas 39 Gripen, which would have deterred the Azerbaijani aggression against the Armenians in Artsakh in 2020. Yet, to everyone’s surprise, Armenia’s leadership chose Russian-made Su-30SMs, which, for different reasons, were not even utilized during the 44-Day War, or later during Azerbaijani border intrusions in 2021 and 2022. In fact, instead of the 12 Su-30SM aircraft that Armenia ordered from Russia, only four of them came in, while other military orders from Russia worth nearly $600 million remained unfulfilled. In 2023, the American delegation to Armenia, led by Congressman Frank Palone and Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi, offered military aid to Armenia if Armenia moved away from Russia and forged closer ties with the U.S., yet Pashinyan’s government did nothing of significance to develop such ties with the U.S.
Seven years of Pashinyan’s ineffective leadership can be described as the time of missed opportunities and losses of various kinds, ranging from territorial losses to those of cultural-historical significance. Furthermore, Pashinyan’s leadership has fragmented the Armenian society and destroyed the ties between the Republic of Armenia and its worldwide Armenian diaspora, which played a crucial role in Armenia’s independence and economic development since Armenia’s independence in 1991. The only way for the Republic of Armenia to make significant progress in the coming years is to consolidate its people and resources around honest and responsible new political leaders, parties, and organizations who will be able to rally around one candidate capable of defeating Pashinyan and his Civil Contract Party during the upcoming parliamentary elections in 2026. Any more of Pashinyan’s rule will threaten the national sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Republic of Armenia.
Conclusion:
As new elections loom on the horizon, the Armenian people must consolidate their resources around people who are honest and committed to strengthening Armenia. The Republic of Armenia, first and foremost, must rely on its people and resources to develop a diversified economy and achieve energy independence that doesn’t solely depend on Russia. It must push for faster integration with the EU and quickly acquire new markets in Europe, Asia, and Africa for exporting its agricultural goods. Furthermore, Armenia’s banking and IT sectors can compete with other companies around the world by offering effective and affordable services to their foreign clients.
In the meantime, greater attention must be paid to developing Armenia’s military-industrial complex. Considering Armenia’s geography and past experiences with its northern and southern neighbors, Armenia must be able to achieve military self-sufficiency like Israel and South Korea by investing heavily in its military industrial complex, and by attracting foreign investors as well. Furthermore, Armenia’s foreign policy must become very dynamic and robust, more proactive, not reactive. There is a unique place and role for Armenia to play in the region, and on the world stage, and to secure that place, Armenia should leave defunct and outdated organizations such as CSTO and CIS, which are holding Armenia back from fulfilling its full potential.
Note: Grigor Hakobyan is an independent political, defense and security analyst residing in Phoenix, AZ. He holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Political Science from Arizona State University and a Master of Arts degree in Education from Grand Canyon University. In the past, he has written analytical articles pertaining to Armenia and the surrounding region for the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute of John Hopkins University. Grigor Hakobyan has interned at the US House of Representatives, where he researched ethnic conflicts and terrorism in Russia, Caucasus and Central Asia regions and prepared morning briefings for a congressman. Additionally, he has interned at the Potomac Institute for Policy Studies at the International Center for Terrorism Studies, where he researched terrorist networks operating in Russia, Central Asia and Caucasus regions. He is the founder and chief editor of Ararat Institute for Near Eastern Studies online magazine. From time to time, he also wrote political analysis articles for ANN (Armenian News Network)/Groong.