By Grigor Hakobyan
Summary:
The 2023 was marked with many missed opportunities, another act of genocide by Azerbaijani armed forces and forceful removal of the entire Armenian population from Artsakh. Specifically, despite multiple visits by high ranking Western leaders, including a large delegation from the U.S. Congress, who offered support and cooperation with Armenia in exchange for moving away from Russia, the present leadership of Armenia failed to do so, and continues to remain within Russian-led organizations such as CIS, CSTO and EEU, despite the fact that they provide very little to no gain for the Armenian national interests. Furthermore, its continued membership in Russian-led organizations limits the room for diplomatic maneuvers for Armenia and denies opportunities to acquire potent and top of the notch western weapon systems to enhance its defense capabilities against upcoming Azerbaijani military aggression that may span the entire territory of the Republic of Armenia.
Unless the political and military leaderships in Armenia make rapid changes to diversify its economy, foreign exports, develop energy independence, truly reform its military and reorient its foreign policy fully towards the West, and replace its security treaties with Russia by similar treaties with the western powers, Armenia is going to face the next war with Azerbaijani-Turkish-Russian coalition all on its own, with low chances of withstanding such an invasion. It may possibly lose its national sovereignty over much of its internationally recognized territories, if not the entire country. It is necessary to remove Russian military presence from Armenia and invite Western countries to station their bases in Armenia to prevent Azerbaijan from launching its all-out war against Armenia. The time to make rapid and significant changes is rapidly shrinking, and if any more hesitation continues, Armenia will lose its chance to avoid the resumption of war with Azerbaijan.
Background: 2023
The 2023 was marked with very significant events for Armenia. Specifically, a very large Congressional delegation from the U.S. led by the former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Armenia and offered political, and military support to Armenia if the Armenia’s leadership agreed to turn away from Russia and moved towards the West. Next it was followed by a process of diversification of Armenia’s military acquisitions by the MOD (Ministry of Defense), where India and France became the largest suppliers of military hardware and munitions to Armenia, after signing military contracts worth over $2 billion, thus replacing Russia which was Armenia’s dominant supplier of military hardware and munitions for the past thirty years. Then, the end of 2023 was marked by Armenia’s failure to leave Russian-led organizations and fully turn to the West, despite the genocide of Armenians that took place in Artsakh, because of which the entire Armenian population of 160,000 was deported from their homeland (105,000 were deported in 2023, and 55,000 fled Artsakh after November 9, 2020, ceasefire). The results of Nikol Pashinyan’s leadership in 2023 are mixed. Overall, it was very ineffective leading to the new threat of Azerbaijani military aggression against the Republic of Armenia in 2024.
Analysis and Recommendations:
There are many changes taking place around the world, which directly affect every country in the world, especially those in tense regions that presently have conflicts or have a high probability for a major conflict, including Asia Minor or Greater Middle East, that Armenia is part of. The world is quickly dividing into two poles, one that brings authoritarian regimes together on one side, and democracies on the other side. The authoritarian pole is comprised of Russia, China, Turkey, Iran, and other minor players around the world. Meanwhile, the democratic pole is composed of countries in the collective West, led by U.S.A., France, and others, including those in Asia, such as India, South Korea, Japan, etc. The concept of the West is no longer limited by its geography. It is primarily identified by the type of governance that is practiced in any given country, Armenia being one of them.
Considering the various tensions in the world, it is reasonable to expect for many wars to break out around the world this year. Therefore, it is very important for Armenia to have trusted allies on its side, and Russia is definitely not one of them. Considering how Russia has purposely destroyed the balance of power in the region by heavily arming Azerbaijan since 2008, took part in the imposition of blockade against the Armenian people of Artsakh, and actively instituted the policy of starvation, an act of genocide, against them to force Armenians of Artsakh to submit to the Azerbaijani dictatorial rule leaves no doubt for any Armenian around the world that present day Russia is an enemy of Armenia. Furthermore, its failure to remove Azerbaijani checkpoint on the Goris-Stepanakert corridor in light of November 7, 2020, cease-fire agreement, and active enforcement of the blockade (an act of war) against the Armenians of Artsakh, followed by the deportation of the entire Armenian population from Artsakh in September 2023, further testifies to the Russian complicity in the genocide of Armenians that took place last year.
What was even more surprising is the fact that Armenians of Artsakh were the most pro-Russian population group in the post-Soviet territory who have also recognized the so-called independence of Donetsk, Lugansk, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, artificial pro-Russian entities that contributed to the Russian revanchism, an ill-advised attempt to restore the 19th century Russian Empire. It is reasonable to say that Putin and its clique have lost touch with reality. While the world entered the 21st century many years ago, Putin and his collaborators are still stuck in the 19th century. Instead of accepting the fact that no country from post-Soviet period wants to be part of Russia anymore, they are forcing themselves upon them by ignoring their will to self-govern themselves, and by installing puppet leaders in Belarus, and elsewhere, who do not stand any chance of winning any elections if truly free and fair democratic elections took place in those countries.
Armenia needs to solidly align itself with the West by breaking Russian chokehold over its economy, governance, politics, military, intelligence, and other spheres of vital importance to the country, such as the control over its civil infrastructure, communications, and the information field. Armenia is one of very few countries in the world where Russian public media outlets are allowed to pedal Russian government propaganda 24/7, despite their anti-Armenian nature. It creates unnecessary divisions within the country through its many agents of influence found in the government of Armenia, and among its so-called political opposition parties. The fact that a small country, such as Armenia with a population of three million has more than one hundred political parties who are mostly pro-Russian is one of many examples of Russian government manipulation and meddling in the internal affairs of the Republic of Armenia.
The Russian government is using its media outlets to manipulate public opinion in the country, and rally people against its own government by calling for the forceful overthrow of largely, democratically elected government. As such, all broadcasts of Russian public television and radio on the territory of Armenia should be banned just like they are banned in the United States and Europe. Those who want to hear Russian government propaganda can always use the internet to find it. There is a difference between broadcasting news and pedaling fake, government propaganda which is part of a hybrid war being waged against Armenia and its people by Russian authorities in Moscow. What Russia is trying to achieve in Armenia through its hybrid warfare is the further breakup of the country between itself and Azerbaijan, and Turkey, just like it happened in 1921 with Treaty of Moscow and the Treaty of Kars. As a result, the Armenian people lost most of its territories internationally recognized as part of the Republic of Armenia by the League of Nations, the predecessor of the U.N.
The Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, which could have been easily and peacefully resolved back in 1987, if not sooner, have been always used by the Russian government, for the past four decades, as a tool for maintaining its presence and influence in the region, through constant wars and political instability. By carrying out a genocide of Armenians in Artsakh, Russia has opened the door for its own exit not only from the Republic of Armenia, but also from the entire region. Not only is Russia responsible for the genocide of Armenians in Artsakh, but also it is responsible for the resumption of Armenian-Azerbaijani war in 2020. Along with the present government of Armenia, Russia also bears the responsibility for the defeat of Artsakh Defense Army during the 44 Day War. Furthermore, this was not just another war, but a continuation of the war that started in 1989, due to the refusal of the former government of the Soviet Union and its subsequent Russian governments that came to replace it in the early 1990s, to resolve this issue peacefully and justly.
It is important to mention that the present government of Armenia doesn’t enjoy the trust of its people, both at home and abroad. For the past six years Pashinyan’s security detail has only increased, not decreased. Instead of making Armenia more independent from Russia since 2018, it has made Armenia more dependent on Russia in every aspect of its life. The Russian military-intelligence footprint in Armenia and its economic dependence on Russia has rapidly increased for the last six years as well. This needs to change, the sooner, the better. The change should start with the resignation of the Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and his government, and by organizing new democratic elections. Russian chokehold of Armenia is holding the country back from fulfilling its potential as a viable and successful state. Furthermore, it prevents Armenia from joining the European Union, integrating with the West, and achieving economic prosperity for its people. The sooner Russia leaves the region alone and begins to act as a normal country, and not as an empire, the better it would be for everyone involved.
Presently Armenia’s national borders (except the border between Armenia and Georgia) and being patrolled by Russian FSB border troops, its airspace is mostly monitored by Russian air-defense forces, and most of Armenia’s exports are oriented towards Russian market. As the 44 Day War of 2020, and the subsequent Azerbaijani military occupation of Armenian territories within its internationally recognized borders has shown, Russia is not there to defend Armenia’s internationally recognized borders despite its various collective and bilateral security treaties and obligations towards the Republic of Armenia. In fact, it doesn’t even acknowledge that there are any Armenian borders despite its prior agreements with Armenia. Moreover, it thinks of Armenia as its backyard, not as another sovereign country that it should have good relations with by respecting its sovereignty and fulfilling its international and bilateral agreements.
During past military confrontations with Azerbaijan, Russia has turned off Armenia’s air-defense systems, used its special forces to attack Armenian troops in Artsakh (during battles in Hadrut) from behind, while its border troops fled from their military positions in the face of attacking Azerbaijani forces during 2021 and 2022 border incursions in Gegharkunik and Syunik provinces. In fact, most of them fled at least two hours before the attacks, and without notifying the Armenian military about the security gaps that they created on the frontline. In essence, the Russian troops in Armenia are not fulfilling their security obligations towards the Republic of Armenia, and resemble more of a Trojan Horse, rather than an actual ally and military partner to be trusted and relied upon in times of need.
Hence, it critical for Armenia to significantly reduce its reliance on Russian military and minimize its footprint in Armenia by finding new allies and security partners who can be trusted, such as the United States of America, France, India, and other countries in the West. Unlike Russia, they have consistently shown their concerns for the security of the Armenian people, supported Armenia’s national sovereignty and territorial integrity. Unlike the Russian Federation, they recognize Armenia’s sovereignty and international borders, and have provided Armenia with their backing and support through different means, for many years, especially in the last four years. To strengthen Armenia’s national sovereignty, and significantly reduce its reliance on Russia, Armenia must undertake serious steps to reform its government, economy, foreign policy, and the security apparatus.
Economy:
Armenia must diversify its economy by finding new markets for its goods and services. Countries of Middle East and Europe could become its biggest consumers of agricultural goods and services. Furthermore, Armenia should invite major American and European firms to develops its military-industrial complex, pharmaceutical, agriculture, and mining industries which will attract advance western technologies, and generate tens of thousands of new jobs. Unlike India and Vietnam, Armenia should focus on developing and exporting high end value goods which will be cheaper to make in Armenia, and most profitable for selling them abroad. Attracting high tech companies that manufacture microchips and other high end electronic goods should become the country’s number one priority.
Foreign Policy:
To achieve high economic output, attract foreign investments, and to significantly improve its military-industrial complex, Armenia must exit Russian-led organizations, such as CIS, CSTO and EEU. Being part of Russian-led organizations undermines Armenia’s development, and significantly impacts its national security. What is the point of being in CSTO, for example, which doesn’t recognize the borders of Armenia as acknowledged by the U.N. ? ; not to mention that members of CSTO are allies of Azerbaijan. They have contributed to the strengthening of Azerbaijani military capabilities, and supported Azerbaijan during the 44 Day War, even though they didn’t have any security treaties with Azerbaijan, and despite the fact that unlike Armenia, Azerbaijan was not part of the CSTO. What is the point of being in CIS which resembles a club of old, ex-KGB, foreign dictators, who care more about their own power and enrichment, rather than that of their people ? What is the point of being part of EEU where Russia bans Armenian agricultural goods whenever it pleases, and not for any good reason, and shuts the Lars transportation corridor anytime it wishes, for any reason, or no reason at all ?
Defense and Security:
To strengthen its security and prevent another war, Armenia should apply to become part of the E.U. and achieve a non-NATO ally status with the United States and its allies, such as Canada, Australia, and others, like Japan and South Korea. Furthermore, it should sign bilateral defense and security treaties with France, Greece, the United States, and others, and invite them, including India, to build their own military bases in Armenia, if they wish to do so. Instead of letting Russia maintain their military bases in Armenia free of charge, it should start charging them for such a luxury, and demand Russia to pay as much as the western countries are willing to pay for their own military bases in Armenia. Failure to pay for its military presence in Armenia will result in automatic removal of Russian military bases from Armenia.
Additionally, Armenia should invite Frontex to provide border security and offer to host bases of E.U. Rapid Deployment Capacity (RDC), also referred to as European Rapid Reaction Forces on its soil. Furthermore, Armenia needs to implement a policy of lustration to weed out spies and collaborators within its ranks, the military, intelligence, and the political establishment itself. The same should be done among fake opposition parties in Armenia, which are led by formerly deposed leaders and their proxies. They have greatly undermined Armenia’s national security and bear responsibility for significant losses of Armenian troops during the 44 Day War in Artsakh and afterwards, during 2021 and 2022 Azerbaijani military incursions and occupations of territories internationally recognized as part of the Republic of Armenia.
Military Cooperation: France, India, and Greece…
Since its significant losses during the 44 Day War and even more after the Armenian Genocide in Artsakh in 2023, Armenia began to look elsewhere to diversify its security partnerships. The first to respond were India, followed by France and Greece which have provided Armenia with various armaments and munitions to enhance its defense capacity, particularly by meeting Armenia’s needs to acquire modern air-defense and artillery systems. This is a welcome change, and the right path for Armenia to follow in the coming years to address its security needs, however, more needs to be done. Specifically, bilateral defense and security cooperation with the above-mentioned states should be elevated to the level of military and strategic alliances to counter Russia, Turkey, and Azerbaijan. Even more, Armenia should make efforts to develop military cooperation and seek bilateral defense and security treaties with leading democracies of the West and the East, such as United States, Germany, Netherlands, Sweden, Australia, Japan, South Korea, and others.
Military Reforms and Civil Defense:
Furthermore, a deeper reform of Armenian Armed Forces should be conducted with the assistance of military specialists from France, the United States, and other NATO members. Especially, Armenia should build a comprehensive defense and security strategy that is unique to Armenia and will involve every citizen in Armenia, particularly those in border towns and villages. Presently, after amending some laws, the Armenia’s General Staff was able to establish Territorial Defense Force Command that oversees the development and training of local forces, known as “Ashkharazor” to public. They are part of the active reserve force. However, that is not sufficient. Armenia should spend sufficient capital to enhance its civil defenses by building underground bunkers and bomb shelters in every town and village, including in Yerevan and nearby cities. Considering that Azerbaijan is refusing to sign a peace treaty that meets interests of both parties and continues to use war rhetoric against Armenia and the Armenian people, by claiming the entire country as “Western Azerbaijan”, it is only a matter of time before Azerbaijan will unleash another large-scale military aggression against Armenia.
According to both Armenian and foreign experts, the likelihood of military escalation this year is very high, and as such, Armenia must be ready for it, including for a total war that will make Armenia’s capital, Yerevan another border town, as endangered as others, located in direct proximity to Azerbaijani military positions such as Vardenis, Jermuk, Eraskh, Ijevan, and others. The escalation may happen at any time, due to not only local incidents, but also as a result of regional and global developments such as the expansion of Arab-Israeli conflict in the Middle East, potential Pacific crisis over Taiwan, resumption of war between North Korea and South Korea, and possible direct clash between Russia and the West over the war in Ukraine and its neighboring countries, such as Moldova and Belarus. This year is going to be very unstable, as the world remakes itself to fit the realities of present times.
Conclusion:
Armenian cultural identity is European, and as such Armenia is an extension of Europe in the region. Considering that Georgia is on track to become part of the European Union in a near future, Armenia should welcome the opportunity to join the European community as well. An organization where its national sovereignty, territorial integrity and cultural identity will be respected and protected. Armenia is the birthplace of the European civilization, and as such, it belongs to be in Europe, not in Asia as a Russian “gubernya” or Turkish “vilayet”. Russia has failed to provide Armenia with the security and protection that it needs. It doesn’t make sense continuing bilateral and collective security relations with Russia, when it has openly been supporting Turkey and Azerbaijan, selling weapons to them, sharing intelligence with them, compromising Armenia’s air defenses, shooting Armenian soldiers in the back on the battlefield, abandoning its posts on the border thereby creating security gaps along the contact line, which costs hundreds of Armenian lives and POWs. Russia has organized and carried out a genocide of Armenians in Artsakh, both in 1992 and in 2023, and it is the primary cause of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict for the last one hundred years. It only makes sense to hold Russia accountable and neutralize its devastating influence in Armenia.
Note: Grigor Hakobyan is an independent political, defense and security analyst residing in Phoenix, AZ. He holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Political Science from Arizona State University and a Master of Arts degree in Education from Grand Canyon University. In the past, he has written analytical articles pertaining to Armenia and the surrounding region for the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute of John Hopkins University. Grigor Hakobyan has interned at the US House of Representatives, where he researched ethnic conflicts and terrorism in Russia, Caucasus and Central Asia regions and prepared morning briefings for a congressman. Additionally, he has interned at the Potomac Institute for Policy Studies at the International Center for Terrorism Studies, where he researched terrorist networks operating in Russia, Central Asia and Caucasus regions. He is the founder and chief editor of Ararat Institute for Near Eastern Studies online magazine. From time to time, he also wrote political analysis articles for ANN (Armenian News Network)/Groong.