Category: Politics

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Armenia 2026: Mid-Year Analysis

By Grigor Hakobyan

Summary:

Six months into 2026, a lot has already happened in Armenia. First, Armenia showcased its indigenously made weapons during the Republic Day Parade on May 28 and at the RISE (Research, Innovation, Science, and Engineering) event organized by Silicon Mountains in Yerevan, with plenty of surprises for many. Second, despite Russian-led election interference and the imposition of an economic embargo against Armenia, the people of Armenia held peaceful parliamentary elections, which were recognized by international observers as mostly free and fair, and therefore legitimate. Third, new military partnerships and economic opportunities opened up for Armenia after it finished signing strategic partnership agreements with the EU, the United States, and the French Republic, in addition to other countries that did the same, during the 8th Summit of the European Political Community event held in Yerevan on 4 May.

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Armenia: Review and Outlook 2025

By Grigor Hakobyan

Summary:

Since the end of 44 Day War in Artsakh in 2020, and deportations of the entire Armenian population from their ancestral homes in Artsakh, the Armenian government under the Pashinyan administration made multiple public announcements about changing Armenia’s foreign policy orientation toward deeper integration with the West, and about beginning of reforms in the military with the support from the U.S., France and E.U. Unfortunately, very little has been achieved so far. Military reforms appear to occur at a slow pace, and the foreign policy orientation has not undergone significant changes. The corruption in the Armenian military and the government continues to be a major issue, and there are very few achievements in foreign policy to merit any significance.

With the new elections coming up in 2026, nothing is expected to change unless new, effective leaders with sufficient charisma, experience, and public following take the reins of the government in their hands to guide Armenia towards better outcomes. A new Armenia that will possess a superior military, a competent government, an efficient economy, and a dynamic foreign policy. A new Armenia that will be free of criminal oligarchy, free of complete reliance on Russia; Armenia with an active civil society that will have more influence on its own government than a few Russian-connected oligarchs within the country along with former soviet apparatchiks calling shots from Russia.

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Early Elections in Armenia: Challenges and Opportunities

By Hrachya Arzumanian

Summary:

The ongoing self-organization processes allowed the Armenian society to move to the stage of forming larger socio-political associations based on micro-groups. Armenia’s current situation does not allow us to say whether the society will be able to form an alternative pole of social and political forces for early elections.

The Armenian government has created a situation of unfolding an image election campaign when the political struggle comes down to a clash of personalities who are symbols of the present and the previous government. The intention to speed up self-organization processes and the formation of an alternative pole force us to accept the proposed conditions for conducting an election campaign when time and resources become a critical parameter.

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Early Elections in Armenia in the Context of Deepening National Crisis

By Hrachya Arzumanian

Summary:

Recent opinion polls show that the 17+ political bloc has the support of several percent of the Armenian society and cannot claim any serious representation in parliament. The Armenian society does not accept the previous authorities and does not intend to vote for them. The same opinion polls show that most of the Armenian society does not accept other opposition political forces and politicians and intends not to participate in the elections in the absence of new and influential political and social forces, initiatives, and individuals. According to the principle of the previous and current authorities, the artificial division of the Armenian political field, the formation of an imaginary opposition is intended to hinder the emergence of influential socio-political forces capable of consolidating the Armenian society.

The decision to hold swift elections without making the necessary changes to the electoral legislation makes it possible to create conditions for the reproduction of power in a disoriented society. During the rally phase of the confrontation between the armed forces and the prime minister, the latter displayed its ability to resort to administrative resources. Such facts do not allow us to speak with confidence about the possibility of observing electoral procedures and rules during the election campaign and on election day.

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