Author: grigorh

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Armenia: Review and Outlook 2025-2026  

By Grigor Hakobyan  

Summary:  

Armenia underwent significant changes in 2025. Armenia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Defense stood out with their activism as the Republic of Armenia signed many strategic partnership agreements with various countries, including the Netherlands, Kazakhstan, Iran, China, Great Britain, the USA, and others. However, it is not yet clear what kind of meaningful and tangible benefits Armenia receives from these partnerships, as the contents and details of these agreements are not publicly well-known. Similarly, it is not clear what Armenia has acquired or plans to acquire for its security and defense needs, as all information related to Armenia’s defense and security needs has been classified as “secret” by a state law, passed after the disastrous 44 Day War in 2020. Furthermore, close relations between the government of Armenia and the Armenian diaspora abroad have not been remedied and fully restored.   

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Armenia: Review and Outlook 2025

By Grigor Hakobyan

Summary:

Since the end of 44 Day War in Artsakh in 2020, and deportations of the entire Armenian population from their ancestral homes in Artsakh, the Armenian government under the Pashinyan administration made multiple public announcements about changing Armenia’s foreign policy orientation toward deeper integration with the West, and about beginning of reforms in the military with the support from the U.S., France and E.U. Unfortunately, very little has been achieved so far. Military reforms appear to occur at a slow pace, and the foreign policy orientation has not undergone significant changes. The corruption in the Armenian military and the government continues to be a major issue, and there are very few achievements in foreign policy to merit any significance.

With the new elections coming up in 2026, nothing is expected to change unless new, effective leaders with sufficient charisma, experience, and public following take the reins of the government in their hands to guide Armenia towards better outcomes. A new Armenia that will possess a superior military, a competent government, an efficient economy, and a dynamic foreign policy. A new Armenia that will be free of criminal oligarchy, free of complete reliance on Russia; Armenia with an active civil society that will have more influence on its own government than a few Russian-connected oligarchs within the country along with former soviet apparatchiks calling shots from Russia.

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Armenia: Review and Outlook 2023-2024

By Grigor Hakobyan

Summary:

The 2023 was marked with many missed opportunities, another act of genocide by Azerbaijani armed forces and forceful removal of the entire Armenian population from Artsakh. Specifically, despite multiple visits by high ranking Western leaders, including a large delegation from the U.S. Congress, who offered support and cooperation with Armenia in exchange for moving away from Russia, the present leadership of Armenia failed to do so, and continues to remain within Russian-led organizations such as CIS, CSTO and EEU, despite the fact that they provide very little to no gain for the Armenian national interests. Furthermore, its continued membership in Russian-led organizations limits the room for diplomatic maneuvers for Armenia and denies opportunities to acquire potent and top of the notch western weapon systems to enhance its defense capabilities against upcoming Azerbaijani military aggression that may span the entire territory of the Republic of Armenia.

Unless the political and military leaderships in Armenia make rapid changes to diversify its economy, foreign exports, develop energy independence, truly reform its military and reorient its foreign policy fully towards the West, and replace its security treaties with Russia by similar treaties with the western powers, Armenia is going to face the next war with Azerbaijani-Turkish-Russian coalition all on its own, with low chances of withstanding such an invasion. It may possibly lose its national sovereignty over much of its internationally recognized territories, if not the entire country. It is necessary to remove Russian military presence from Armenia and invite Western countries to station their bases in Armenia to prevent Azerbaijan from launching its all-out war against Armenia. The time to make rapid and significant changes is rapidly shrinking, and if any more hesitation continues, Armenia will lose its chance to avoid the resumption of war with Azerbaijan.    

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Armenia-Azerbaijan: On the Verge of Another Conflict

BY GRIGOR HAKOBYAN

Summary:

As a result of ineffective foreign policy by the Republic of Armenia, the most recent UN Security Council meeting organized to discuss the genocide of Armenians in Artsakh didn’t produce any significant results. The Republic of Armenia failed to officially identify who is behind the starvation of Armenian people in Artsakh, an act of genocide. It didn’t even use the word “genocide” to describe what is presently happening there, even though every opportunity was given for Armenia to do so. The culprits behind this genocide, death by starvation, are Russia, Azerbaijan, and Turkey. Russia failed to keep Berdzor (Lachin) Corridor open. After it was closed by the Azerbaijani border guards, Russian peacekeepers, and border guards failed to open it even though it was their responsibility to keep it open according to November 9, 2020, cease-fire agreement. Failure to keep the corridor open and open the corridor after it got closed made Russia a culprit behind this genocide. Furthermore, their behavior and speech at the Security Council meeting left no doubts about their involvement in this tragedy and their anti-Armenian bias in this conflict. Russia is working against Armenia contrary to its bilateral security treaties and CSTO treaties with Armenia.

Considering that people in Artsakh cannot go on like this forever, there is a high likelihood that their patience will run out soon, and they will be forced to open the Berdzor corridor by force or face death by starvation, which is what Azerbaijan wants, to resume the war against the Armenians in Artsakh to achieve their total extermination and complete occupation of Armenian lands. Furthermore, considering the presently high concentration of Azerbaijani military hardware and troops around the Armenian-held territories of Artsakh and around the borders of the Republic of Armenia, which are in geographic proximity to Artsakh (Syunik, Vayots Dzor, Gegharkunik provinces), there is a high likelihood of Azerbaijani military invasion of Armenian towns and villages, including its capital- Stepanakert, within the next few months or weeks. This time, however, there is a high likelihood of regional countries getting directly involved in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. In fact, it can become a flashpoint for a much wider conflict that will stretch beyond the borders of Armenia and Azerbaijan. As such, Armenians in Armenia and around the world must prepare for another round of war that may last several months or years before the balance of power in the region is restored.

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