BY GRIGOR HAKOBYAN
As a result of ineffective foreign policy by the Republic of Armenia, the most recent UN Security Council meeting organized to discuss the genocide of Armenians in Artsakh didn’t produce any significant results. The Republic of Armenia failed to officially identify who is behind the starvation of Armenian people in Artsakh, an act of genocide. It didn’t even use the word “genocide” to describe what is presently happening there, even though every opportunity was given for Armenia to do so. The culprits behind this genocide, death by starvation, are Russia, Azerbaijan, and Turkey. Russia failed to keep Berdzor (Lachin) Corridor open. After it was closed by the Azerbaijani border guards, Russian peacekeepers, and border guards failed to open it even though it was their responsibility to keep it open according to November 9, 2020, cease-fire agreement. Failure to keep the corridor open and open the corridor after it got closed made Russia a culprit behind this genocide. Furthermore, their behavior and speech at the Security Council meeting left no doubts about their involvement in this tragedy and their anti-Armenian bias in this conflict. Russia is working against Armenia contrary to its bilateral security treaties and CSTO treaties with Armenia.
Considering that people in Artsakh cannot go on like this forever, there is a high likelihood that their patience will run out soon, and they will be forced to open the Berdzor corridor by force or face death by starvation, which is what Azerbaijan wants, to resume the war against the Armenians in Artsakh to achieve their total extermination and complete occupation of Armenian lands. Furthermore, considering the presently high concentration of Azerbaijani military hardware and troops around the Armenian-held territories of Artsakh and around the borders of the Republic of Armenia, which are in geographic proximity to Artsakh (Syunik, Vayots Dzor, Gegharkunik provinces), there is a high likelihood of Azerbaijani military invasion of Armenian towns and villages, including its capital- Stepanakert, within the next few months or weeks. This time, however, there is a high likelihood of regional countries getting directly involved in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. In fact, it can become a flashpoint for a much wider conflict that will stretch beyond the borders of Armenia and Azerbaijan. As such, Armenians in Armenia and around the world must prepare for another round of war that may last several months or years before the balance of power in the region is restored.
Continue reading “Armenia-Azerbaijan: On the Verge of Another Conflict”
By Grigor Hakobyan
Armenia’s foreign policy lacks clear objectives, while its military reforms are very slow and do not go deep enough to build an effective, new military ready to take on the challenges of 21st-century warfare. Government corruption and abuse of power by various government officials are still widespread. Meanwhile, those with significant financial resources and political clout easily avoid criminal persecution and facing time in prison for their misdeeds. Political opposition in Armenia is weak and lacks the support and trust of the majority of the country’s citizens. Those considered radical oppositionists are often harassed by the country’s various law enforcement agencies and face continuous political pressure and persecution. Furthermore, the presence of more than 100 political parties in a country of nearly three million doesn’t allow for the majority of Armenia’s populace to come together around a few common principles and strategic goals that will be vital for Armenia’s national security and development.
If these dangerous trends continue unabated, Armenia will not be ready to effectively counter the subsequent Azerbaijani-Turkish aggression against its national sovereignty or provide much-needed security to its fellow Armenian citizens residing in the Republic of Artsakh. Failure to clearly understand the scope and depth of the regional and global dynamics associated with the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict by present authorities in Yerevan and unnecessary rush to make a peace deal with Azerbaijan at any expense will cost Armenia dearly soon afterward. Furthermore, the recognition of Artsakh as part of Azerbaijan by present authorities in Armenia has derailed the work of the Minsk Group and other international actors and platforms which allowed and advocated for Artsakh’s right to self-determination. This dangerous development may also lead to the finale of the Armenian Genocide that began in the last century, during WW-1, resulting in the elimination of all Armenians in Artsakh and the destruction of all the Armenian cultural heritage in the region.
Continue reading “The Coming Genocide of Armenians in Artsakh and How to Avert It”
By Grigor Hakobyan
In 2022, the Pashinyan government failed to develop a comprehensive foreign policy, restore the trust of the Armenian diaspora and most of Armenia’s citizens towards the government in Armenia, or acquire new allies to enhance the security of Armenia. Furthermore, it failed to fully restore Armenia’s military capabilities or register any significant accomplishments in the foreign policy arena. The last two years were marked by substantial territorial losses by the Republic of Armenia and the unpreparedness of the Armenian leadership, both military and political, to take adequate steps to defend the territorial integrity of the Republic of Armenia.
The political incompetence of the Pashinyan government and failure to take advantage of various geopolitical dynamics unfolding in the region has further undermined the security of the Armenian Republic. Unless the government in Armenia changes and the fake “opposition” forces cede the ground to real political opposition forces, both will continue dragging Armenia down until Armenia is on its knees and unable to fight back against its enemies. With the beginning of 2023, Armenia’s future remains blurry while the probability for resumption of large-scale conflict, or a total Armenian-Azerbaijani war, remains very high.
Continue reading “Armenian-Turkish Conflict 2022-2023: Review and Outlook”
By Grigor Hakoyban
Several days ago, Azerbaijani troops invaded Armenian territory in several directions. One direction that they intruded was towards Vardenis, another one towards Djermuk, third one towards Sisian, and the fourth one towards Goris by capturing most of the Sev Lich (Black Lake) and several hilltops around the lake that overlook strategic highway going through Armenia, which connects Yerevan to Goris and Goris to Khapan. The Azerbaijani contingent that captured Sev Lich was able to intrude into Armenia’s territory three and a half kilometers deep. The contingent was made up of several hundred Azerbaijani special forces without encountering any resistance. According to Armenia’s Ministry of Defense, the roads leading to the positions occupied by Azerbaijani troops on Ishxanasar Mountain are under Armenian control, making it harder for Azerbaijan to supply its forces on the mountain top. In the meantime, according to some political observers in Armenia, two Armenian military positions also positioned near the mountain top are presently surrounded by Azerbaijani troops.
Surprisingly, the Armenian armed forces didn’t fire any shots to stop the advancement of enemy troops or make any attempt to arrest them. According to undisclosed sources within Armenia’s military, the soldiers were orders not to shoot. It is somewhat surprising that so many enemy troops were able to intrude 3.5km deep into Armenia’s territory without meeting any resistance on the part of Armenian armed forces. Furthermore, the Russian border troops stationed in Syunik Province didn’t do anything to counter the intrusion despite the fact that the Azerbaijani forces have violated not only the border of Armenia but also the border that falls under the security responsibility of the CSTO, which Armenia is a member. That leads some political observers to assert that there is a secret agreement between Armenia, Russia, and Azerbaijan, that people do not know about, which allowed Azerbaijani troops to capture the mountain top without any fighting.
Continue reading “Border Escalations in Syunik and Gegharkunik Provinces and the Coming Armenian-Turkish War”