Armenian-Turkish War: Review and Analysis

By Grigor Hakobyan

Summary:

While the American mainstream media was busy discussing the fly on Mike Pence’s head during Vice Presidential Debate, the Armenian-Turkish conflict entered the second week of violence across the entire line of contact (LoC) between the Republic of Artsakh and Azerbaijan as many regional and extra-regional powers have taken a neutral stand and watch attentively from the sidelines. An attempt by Azerbaijani-Turkish and ISIS-linked formations to encircle Artsakh by taking over its strategic communication highways with the Republic of Armenia while carrying out devastating blows against the Artsakh’s Defense Army in a new and enhanced blitzkrieg strategy has failed dramatically. The Anti-Armenian coalition led by Turkish generals got bogged down in the north and south of Artsakh as the scale of the attack begins to whimper and exhale its last breath. Armenian churches, towns and villages now bear the brunt of a losing barbarian who willingly sacrifices the lives of his own citizens to sustain his bloodthirsty rule in Baku.

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Armenian-Azerbaijani Border Clashes in Tavush Province: The Battle of Hilltops

By Grigor Hakobyan

Summary:

Heavy border clashes between Armenian and Azerbaijani armed forces have been preceded by a number of social, political, economic and geopolitical factors shaping the region and directly impacted both countries, especially the political stability within Azerbaijan itself. The recent flareup saw active use of combat UAVs and special forces between militarily equivalent states of the region. Azerbaijani military is known for its quantitative advantages over Armenian armed forces, while the Armenian military is known for its qualitative advantages over Azerbaijani armed forces. Both sides of the conflict possess significant firepower sufficient to destroy each other over a short period of time. As such, the balance of power has contributed to relatively peaceful coexistence since the end of 1988-1994 Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Artsakh with frequent escalations and border skirmishes for the last twenty-six years.

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The Coming Regional Conflict and the Strategic Importance of Nakhijevan

By Grigor Hakobyan

Summary:

In time of pandemic where all warring countries and entities were asked to stop various conflicts to focus on containing the spread of COVID-19 virus around the world, Azerbaijan decided to conduct large scale military exercises on Armenian-Azerbaijani front lines along the borders of Artsakh and Republic of Armenia between May 18-24 without advance warning as required by international norms and conventions. While major military exercises were taking places at a distance of 800m-1km from the Armenian-Azerbaijani frontlines, a group of Azerbaijani special forces attempted to penetrate Armenian defense lines in the south of Artsakh. Unable to make any progress the Azerbaijani commando team was forced to retreat to its original position while sustaining casualties inflicted during clashes with the Armenian defense forces in the area. In the meantime, the geography of the Azerbaijani military exercises with live fire included the Nakhijevani exclave also.

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Armenia of Today and Armenia of Tomorrow: Present and Future Challenges

By Grigor Hakobyan

Summary:

Past week was full of unexpected surprises for the Armenia’s foreign policy establishment and for the Armenians around the world. Attempts by the Russian Foreign Minister to resurrect his model of Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict resolution also known as Lavrov’s Plan, despite the fact that it was rejected not only by the present government of Armenia but also by the former government of Armenia soon after the Four Day War of 2016 (also known as April War) in light of militaristic statements coming from Azerbaijan and its frequent violations of the cease-fire regime on the LoC between Armenian and Azerbaijani armed forces not only in Artsakh but also on the borders of the Republic of Armenia for the past few months. Furthermore, Russia’s readiness to sell a squadron of its top combat aircrafts, Su-35S to Azerbaijan knowing fully well that they will be used directly against Armenia and potentially against the Russian troops stationed in Armenia during the next round of war in the region may imply only two things, either Russia wants Azerbaijan to defeat Armenia during next confrontation or that it is trying to make money at the expense of political and military commitments to Armenia.

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