Category: Geopolitics

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Armenia: Review and Outlook 2025-2026  

By Grigor Hakobyan  

Summary:  

Armenia underwent significant changes in 2025. Armenia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Defense stood out with their activism as the Republic of Armenia signed many strategic partnership agreements with various countries, including the Netherlands, Kazakhstan, Iran, China, Great Britain, the USA, and others. However, it is not yet clear what kind of meaningful and tangible benefits Armenia receives from these partnerships, as the contents and details of these agreements are not publicly well-known. Similarly, it is not clear what Armenia has acquired or plans to acquire for its security and defense needs, as all information related to Armenia’s defense and security needs has been classified as “secret” by a state law, passed after the disastrous 44 Day War in 2020. Furthermore, close relations between the government of Armenia and the Armenian diaspora abroad have not been remedied and fully restored.   

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Armenia: Review and Outlook 2025

By Grigor Hakobyan

Summary:

Since the end of 44 Day War in Artsakh in 2020, and deportations of the entire Armenian population from their ancestral homes in Artsakh, the Armenian government under the Pashinyan administration made multiple public announcements about changing Armenia’s foreign policy orientation toward deeper integration with the West, and about beginning of reforms in the military with the support from the U.S., France and E.U. Unfortunately, very little has been achieved so far. Military reforms appear to occur at a slow pace, and the foreign policy orientation has not undergone significant changes. The corruption in the Armenian military and the government continues to be a major issue, and there are very few achievements in foreign policy to merit any significance.

With the new elections coming up in 2026, nothing is expected to change unless new, effective leaders with sufficient charisma, experience, and public following take the reins of the government in their hands to guide Armenia towards better outcomes. A new Armenia that will possess a superior military, a competent government, an efficient economy, and a dynamic foreign policy. A new Armenia that will be free of criminal oligarchy, free of complete reliance on Russia; Armenia with an active civil society that will have more influence on its own government than a few Russian-connected oligarchs within the country along with former soviet apparatchiks calling shots from Russia.

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Armenia: Review and Outlook 2023-2024

By Grigor Hakobyan

Summary:

The 2023 was marked with many missed opportunities, another act of genocide by Azerbaijani armed forces and forceful removal of the entire Armenian population from Artsakh. Specifically, despite multiple visits by high ranking Western leaders, including a large delegation from the U.S. Congress, who offered support and cooperation with Armenia in exchange for moving away from Russia, the present leadership of Armenia failed to do so, and continues to remain within Russian-led organizations such as CIS, CSTO and EEU, despite the fact that they provide very little to no gain for the Armenian national interests. Furthermore, its continued membership in Russian-led organizations limits the room for diplomatic maneuvers for Armenia and denies opportunities to acquire potent and top of the notch western weapon systems to enhance its defense capabilities against upcoming Azerbaijani military aggression that may span the entire territory of the Republic of Armenia.

Unless the political and military leaderships in Armenia make rapid changes to diversify its economy, foreign exports, develop energy independence, truly reform its military and reorient its foreign policy fully towards the West, and replace its security treaties with Russia by similar treaties with the western powers, Armenia is going to face the next war with Azerbaijani-Turkish-Russian coalition all on its own, with low chances of withstanding such an invasion. It may possibly lose its national sovereignty over much of its internationally recognized territories, if not the entire country. It is necessary to remove Russian military presence from Armenia and invite Western countries to station their bases in Armenia to prevent Azerbaijan from launching its all-out war against Armenia. The time to make rapid and significant changes is rapidly shrinking, and if any more hesitation continues, Armenia will lose its chance to avoid the resumption of war with Azerbaijan.    

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Analysis of Post-War Armenia and the Way Forward

By Grigor Hakobyan

Summary:

November 9th, 2020 was not only the end of the active stage of hostilities between Armenian and Azerbaijani-Turkish armed forces on Artsakh’s territory but also the end of Armenia’s third republic, something that the present government doesn’t appear to realize. Presently, Armenia’s government doesn’t have the same public support that it had a few years ago and symbolizes Armenia’s defeat not only on the battlefield but also in the diplomatic arena. Armenia’s present political and geopolitical situation is similar to a drowning person with hands handcuffed behind his back on his way to hit the bottom of the pool. Attempting to break the handcuffs at this point and try to swim up to the surface will do more harm than good and become the cause of his eventual drowning. The solution to the present situation is to wait until it hits the bottom and then spring up towards the surface while breaking the handcuffs in the process. To accomplish that, the Armenian people must take their future into their own hands and through grassroots efforts, rebuild Armenia from the bottom up, shaking away its upper echelons of power who no longer represent the Armenian people and pursue foreign and false agendas to the detriment of Armenian people and the security of the Armenian state. The sooner Armenian people wake up, the more time they will have to change its present trajectory leading the country and the nation to its final demise.

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