By Grigor Hakobyan
Summary:
Armenia underwent significant changes in 2025. Armenia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Defense stood out with their activism as the Republic of Armenia signed many strategic partnership agreements with various countries, including the Netherlands, Kazakhstan, Iran, China, Great Britain, the USA, and others. However, it is not yet clear what kind of meaningful and tangible benefits Armenia receives from these partnerships, as the contents and details of these agreements are not publicly well-known. Similarly, it is not clear what Armenia has acquired or plans to acquire for its security and defense needs, as all information related to Armenia’s defense and security needs has been classified as “secret” by a state law, passed after the disastrous 44 Day War in 2020. Furthermore, close relations between the government of Armenia and the Armenian diaspora abroad have not been remedied and fully restored.
A framework for a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan, known as TRIPP (Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity), was signed by Pashinyan and Aliyev in 2025, but not yet ratified by either country, as Azerbaijan continues to create more hurdles for the normalization of ties between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and continues to occupy Armenian territories along their internationally recognized borders. With the upcoming elections in Armenia this year, and continuous reforms taking place in the spheres of security, defense and foreign policy of Armenia, it is reasonable to suggest that significant changes are coming in 2026, however the outcomes of these changes will either make Armenia great or break Armenia to its core, as a lot will depend on regional and global actors, and their actions around the world.
Background:
Presently, world actors such as Russia, China, USA, and EU are engaged in heated competition over the control of world resources, strategic communications and trade routes, means of strategic production, such as food and microchips, and basic, natural resources such as oil, natural gas, rare earth metals, fertile soil, waterways, land, seas, and space. All major countries are gearing up for a major regional or global war that they anticipate occurring either this year, or within the next few years, as the global demand for various weapons, precision munitions and advance weapon systems has surpassed their means of productions, while some of them have reinstituted mandatory military service for males age 18 and over, and females who are determined to bridge the gender gap in their nations’ militaries.
Increasingly, small nations of Eastern Europe, including Baltic states and Armenia, traditionally known for their patriarchal views about the role of women in society, and some larger nations such as Germany and the Netherlands, are actively recruiting females to fill different ranks and roles in their militaries. As tensions soar around the world, the present government of Armenia is erroneously reducing the size of its military and paramilitary forces, thus undermining the effectiveness of the Armenian military in the mid-to-long term. Current reforms taking place in Armenia’s military are very slow and insufficient, while the procurement of new military hardware is even slower and in smaller quantities than needed. Corruption in Armenia remains a major issue hindering the country’s development despite some successes registered in the fight against it.
Analysis:
For the past 30 plus years since Armenia’s independence, ruling governments in Armenia failed to conduct an active vetting process of all their human resources in every branch of the government to actively identify and remove malicious people from power, specifically those who are corrupt, incompetent, and simply traitors working for foreign services. The first step in eliminating government corruption and removing foreign agents of influence from power should be mandatory vetting of all government officials and their supporting staff. Second, to root out corruption within the government, the sources or circumstances that lead to corruption should be eliminated, which requires automating many government services, reducing person-to person interaction between government officials and people, and cutting the bloated government and support staff. The size of the government in Armenia is too big for a small country of less than two million. The smaller it is, the more effective and efficient it will be, and the less corruption it will have.
In terms of Armenia’s foreign policy, Armenia took a course on integrating with Europe, which is admirable, and it will require much time and effort, and much balancing to avoid upsetting Russia, as it happened with Ukraine. As such, Armenia is trying to have good relations with everyone, including Turkey and Azerbaijan. What the government in Armenia is failing to understand is that peace cannot be achieved with Azerbaijan as long as Ilham Aliyev and his cronies are in charge of Azerbaijan. His daily anti-Armenian rhetoric says much about his intentions towards Armenia, and it should not be ignored.
While Azerbaijan talks big about peace with Armenia, it is quickly acquiring new weapons in very large quantities from different countries, particularly Turkey, Israel, and Pakistan, which they hope will allow them to quickly destroy and eliminate Armenia from the world map during the next round of conflict. Only when Azerbaijan becomes a truly democratic country, like Armenia, will it stop its anti-Armenian rhetoric at all levels of government and domestic policies, and genuinely pursue peace with Armenia at the cost of mutually agreeable compromises; only then will the possibility of lasting peace with Azerbaijan will become more likely. At this point, however, Azerbaijani actions do not match the intent they present publicly.
Militarily, Armenia put a lot of efforts in diversifying its military procurements, which were successful to some extent. Growing ties with France and India allowed Armenia to acquire modern air defense systems, albeit in small quantities. During the 44 Day War in 2020, Armenia lost more than 50% of its air defense capabilities, and so far, it doesn’t seem to have fully recovered from its losses. Furthermore, after Armenia recovers its air defense coverage, it needs to spend more money and resources on developing effective air-denial capabilities, meaning it needs to acquire more advanced air defense systems and in larger quantities than it has lost. Soon after that, Armenia must focus on developing air-superiority capabilities.
In terms of ground capabilities, Armenia has suffered major losses in artillery, tanks, and armored vehicles. Although the purchase of a few dozen of French Cesars and Indian Pinakas, along with other similar artillery systems, has somewhat given Armenia some qualitative edge for the next conflict, this weapon systems are not present in sufficient quantities. Significantly more needs to be acquired not only to restore previous numbers, but also to reach a quantitative edge over similar Azerbaijani weapon systems. South Korean K9 Thunder and Swedish Archer artillery systems need to be added into the mix. Other countries, in addition to India and France, should be considered as well, to expedite the acquisition of the necessary numbers needed for effective defense of Armenia.
Another change that was observed in 2025 was the increase of government funding allocated to domestic weapon manufacturers that make up the present Armenian military industrial complex. Although it is a very new and growing sector in Armenia’s economy, it is improving very fast as more than 100 local, Armenia-based companies have received public funding from Armenia’s Ministry of Defense to develop and present their prototypes for adoption by the Armenian Armed Forces.
Recommendations:
A significant number of high-ranking officials and generals should be sent into retirement to allow fresh, new minds who are properly trained and educated in Western thinking and practice to take over. Presently, there are hundreds of generals who make Armenian Armed Forces. For a small country like Armenia, with a population of less than two million people, the number of generals should be significantly reduced to a dozen, or possibly even fewer. Only those who are competent and ready to lead should be promoted to such a high rank.
Everyone else who got there due to kleptocracy and bribes, in the past thirty years, should be removed and sent into retirement. Furthermore, those who were corrupt and engaged in theft of public resources, such as food, gasoline, etc., should be arrested and prosecuted. Anyone who is found to have ties with foreign intelligence services should be punished accordingly as well.
To be more effective and competitive in world markets, Armenia’s domestic manufacturers need to consolidate into several bigger companies that together will be able to produce higher quality weapons in much larger quantities than presently. Armenia’s military industrial complex needs to become one of the driving engines for Armenia’s economy, like what was achieved by similar companies in Israel and South Korea. Their military products, for example, are in high demand around the world and very expensive to acquire, yet they are also very competitive to similar products offered by the United States, Australia, Canada, and European countries. Armenia should take an example from Israel in this regard.
Furthermore, Armenian MBTs, such as Soviet T-72, should be quickly replaced with better Western counterparts such as South Korean K-2, Swedish CV-90, and other French and German equivalents. They should be procured and adopted quickly into Armenian mechanized battalions to restore numerical and qualitative balance with Azerbaijan. At this point, the balance of power favors Azerbaijan, and as long this continues, the resumption of war with Azerbaijan remains high. Throughout multiple conflicts with Azerbaijan, tanks and armored vehicles have played a major role on every battlefield. As such, only the best variants and in large quantities should be procured and exploited by the Armenian Armed Forces to establish further deterrence against future aggression from Azerbaijan or any of its allies.
Additionally, military training exercises should become more commonplace, including for those who are no longer in active service, and the term of military service should not be reduced, but restored to two years or more. Furthermore, it should become mandatory for all Armenian women to enlist in the Armenian Armed Forces, as it is in Israel. Perhaps not for a year and a half or two years, but for at least a year to learn basic defense and survival skills. In times of war, for example, they can replace the police on the streets of Armenia, serve in intelligence services, and guard strategic facilities, while men engage the attackers at the border. In the meantime, any woman who expresses interest in serving on the border or as part of special forces should be allowed to do so.
To acquire air-superiority capabilities, Armenia cannot rely on Russian Su-30 SMs and its later upgrades, which failed to establish air superiority over Ukraine. Instead, Armenia should consider acquiring modern western platforms such as American F-16s, French Dassault Rafale, or Swedish Saab JAS 39 and its later variants. Without air superiority, Armenia will not be able to effectively deter Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Pakistan from attacking Armenia again as they did in 2020.
Conclusion:
Armenia has had some accomplishments in 2025; however, more could have been achieved. With elections coming up in Armenia this year, the society in Armenia needs to get more active and vigilant to avoid election fraud and replication of a rotting regime that is attacking the Armenian identity at its core. Furthermore, the Armenian society needs to consolidate its political parties into a few out of 130 or so that are presently active in the country. A country of less than two million cannot afford to have more than 130 political parties vying for power. A fragmented society cannot achieve significant gains, neither domestically nor abroad, unless it consolidates itself against the ruling regime and its cronies, which have dealt a great blow to Armenian national interests since 2020, and which continue to tear the society apart by preparing its final surrender to Azerbaijan. Only Armenia-centric and Armenian-centric politicians and movements can bring Armenia together and help the country achieve its respected place in the region.
Note: Grigor Hakobyan is an independent political, defense and security analyst residing in Phoenix, AZ. He holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Political Science from Arizona State University and a Master of Arts degree in Education from Grand Canyon University. In the past, he has written analytical articles pertaining to Armenia and the surrounding region for the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute of John Hopkins University. Grigor Hakobyan has interned at the US House of Representatives, where he researched ethnic conflicts and terrorism in Russia, Caucasus and Central Asia regions and prepared morning briefings for a congressman. Additionally, he has interned at the Potomac Institute for Policy Studies at the International Center for Terrorism Studies, where he researched terrorist networks operating in Russia, Central Asia and Caucasus regions. He is the founder and chief editor of Ararat Institute for Near Eastern Studies online magazine. From time to time, he also wrote political analysis articles for ANN (Armenian News Network)/Groong.