Armenia: Review and Outlook 2018-2019

By Grigor Hakobyan

Summary:

The 2018 was a year of many political accomplishments for Armenia and the Armenian people. A bloodless Velvet Revolution, election of the new Prime Minister (Nikol Pashinyan) and democratic elections of the new Parliament were among the highlights of the year. Taking down organized crime and imprisonment of various former gov’t officials for their roles in theft of public resources and high-level criminal investigations into corruption, tax evasions and illegal use of military to confront peaceful demonstrators on March 1, 2008 were the dominating headlines in media outlets both in Armenia and diaspora.

Now, as Armenia is entering the 2019 a number of military, political and economic challenges await Armenia in the new year. Probably the most vital ones would be the resolution of Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, formation of new government and implementation of constitutional changes that will establish effective system of checks and balances between different branches of government. Devising effective policies that will contribute to Armenia’s security, economic growth, reduction of unemployment and emigration, and encourage repatriation and resettlement of liberated territories are also among them.

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Armenia: the Factor of Regional Stability Amidst US-Russia/Iran Tensions

By Grigor Hakobyan

Summary:

The visit of American National Security Advisor, John Bolton to Russia, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia more than a week ago has caused a wave of political commentary in host countries ranging from hostile (in Russia) to cautious (Armenia and Azerbaijan). As expected, Bolton has articulated American position on a range of geopolitical issues where the interests of both super powers are found to be in contradiction across the Eurasian continent. Among everything that was said and done, Bolton’s comments made in Yerevan about the possibility of selling weapons to Armenia and urging Pashinyan’s government to change country’s “historical patterns” probably caused the most steer in the region, especially in Armenia and the Armenian diaspora.

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Armenia: Geopolitical Analysis

By Grigor Hakobyan

Summary:

The spring and summer of 2018 was very heated, full of somewhat unexpected results. In the meantime, existential threats against Armenia’s national security are mounting while Armenia’s foreign policy remains unclear and very confusing for foreign observers leading to misunderstanding and undue stress in interstate relations both with Russia and the countries of the West. Subsequently, a number of steps outlined below must be taken to clearly formulate Armenia’s foreign policy, identify geopolitical priorities and to strengthen Armenia’s national security for the foreseeable future.

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Artsakh-Nakhijevan: Making the Case for Preemptive Strike

By Grigor Hakobyan

7/02/18

Summary:

Since April of 2018, under the guise of conducting military exercises Azerbaijan has accumulated a very large number of military personnel and hardware on two different fronts surrounding the Armenian heartland thus posing a clear and present danger to the survival of the Armenian nation and the security of its statehood. Accumulations of military personnel and hardware along both LOCs in Nakhijevan and Artsakh has been accompanied with rapid acquisitions of new military hardware from a number of countries such Israel, Turkey, Pakistan and so-called military “allies” of Armenia, members of CSTO: Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus. As the experience of the Four Day War has shown, instead of waiting for a devastating onslaught that can happen at any moment, the security situation on the ground is calling for a proactive defense strategy. Proactive defense entails carrying out a number of devastating preemptive strikes against Azerbaijani military accumulations along the borders of Armenia (Nakhichevan) and Artsakh to effectively degrade and destroy their military capabilities in an effort to prevent or postpone the resumption of large scale Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict in the region.

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