Ararat Institute for Near Eastern Studies

August 23, 2023August 23, 2023

Armenia-Azerbaijan: On the Verge of Another Conflict

BY GRIGOR HAKOBYAN

Summary:

As a result of ineffective foreign policy by the Republic of Armenia, the most recent UN Security Council meeting organized to discuss the genocide of Armenians in Artsakh didn’t produce any significant results. The Republic of Armenia failed to officially identify who is behind the starvation of Armenian people in Artsakh, an act of genocide. It didn’t even use the word “genocide” to describe what is presently happening there, even though every opportunity was given for Armenia to do so. The culprits behind this genocide, death by starvation, are Russia, Azerbaijan, and Turkey. Russia failed to keep Berdzor (Lachin) Corridor open. After it was closed by the Azerbaijani border guards, Russian peacekeepers, and border guards failed to open it even though it was their responsibility to keep it open according to November 9, 2020, cease-fire agreement. Failure to keep the corridor open and open the corridor after it got closed made Russia a culprit behind this genocide. Furthermore, their behavior and speech at the Security Council meeting left no doubts about their involvement in this tragedy and their anti-Armenian bias in this conflict. Russia is working against Armenia contrary to its bilateral security treaties and CSTO treaties with Armenia.

Considering that people in Artsakh cannot go on like this forever, there is a high likelihood that their patience will run out soon, and they will be forced to open the Berdzor corridor by force or face death by starvation, which is what Azerbaijan wants, to resume the war against the Armenians in Artsakh to achieve their total extermination and complete occupation of Armenian lands. Furthermore, considering the presently high concentration of Azerbaijani military hardware and troops around the Armenian-held territories of Artsakh and around the borders of the Republic of Armenia, which are in geographic proximity to Artsakh (Syunik, Vayots Dzor, Gegharkunik provinces), there is a high likelihood of Azerbaijani military invasion of Armenian towns and villages, including its capital- Stepanakert, within the next few months or weeks. This time, however, there is a high likelihood of regional countries getting directly involved in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. In fact, it can become a flashpoint for a much wider conflict that will stretch beyond the borders of Armenia and Azerbaijan. As such, Armenians in Armenia and around the world must prepare for another round of war that may last several months or years before the balance of power in the region is restored.

July 18, 2023August 21, 2023

The Coming Genocide of Armenians in Artsakh and How to Avert It

By Grigor Hakobyan

Summary:

Armenia’s foreign policy lacks clear objectives, while its military reforms are very slow and do not go deep enough to build an effective, new military ready to take on the challenges of 21st-century warfare. Government corruption and abuse of power by various government officials are still widespread. Meanwhile, those with significant financial resources and political clout easily avoid criminal persecution and facing time in prison for their misdeeds. Political opposition in Armenia is weak and lacks the support and trust of the majority of the country’s citizens. Those considered radical oppositionists are often harassed by the country’s various law enforcement agencies and face continuous political pressure and persecution. Furthermore, the presence of more than 100 political parties in a country of nearly three million doesn’t allow for the majority of Armenia’s populace to come together around a few common principles and strategic goals that will be vital for Armenia’s national security and development.

If these dangerous trends continue unabated, Armenia will not be ready to effectively counter the subsequent Azerbaijani-Turkish aggression against its national sovereignty or provide much-needed security to its fellow Armenian citizens residing in the Republic of Artsakh. Failure to clearly understand the scope and depth of the regional and global dynamics associated with the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict by present authorities in Yerevan and unnecessary rush to make a peace deal with Azerbaijan at any expense will cost Armenia dearly soon afterward. Furthermore, the recognition of Artsakh as part of Azerbaijan by present authorities in Armenia has derailed the work of the Minsk Group and other international actors and platforms which allowed and advocated for Artsakh’s right to self-determination. This dangerous development may also lead to the finale of the Armenian Genocide that began in the last century, during WW-1, resulting in the elimination of all Armenians in Artsakh and the destruction of all the Armenian cultural heritage in the region.

December 31, 2022July 18, 2023

Armenian-Turkish Conflict 2022-2023: Review and Outlook

By Grigor Hakobyan

Summary:

In 2022, the Pashinyan government failed to develop a comprehensive foreign policy, restore the trust of the Armenian diaspora and most of Armenia’s citizens towards the government in Armenia, or acquire new allies to enhance the security of Armenia. Furthermore, it failed to fully restore Armenia’s military capabilities or register any significant accomplishments in the foreign policy arena. The last two years were marked by substantial territorial losses by the Republic of Armenia and the unpreparedness of the Armenian leadership, both military and political, to take adequate steps to defend the territorial integrity of the Republic of Armenia.

The political incompetence of the Pashinyan government and failure to take advantage of various geopolitical dynamics unfolding in the region has further undermined the security of the Armenian Republic. Unless the government in Armenia changes and the fake “opposition” forces cede the ground to real political opposition forces, both will continue dragging Armenia down until Armenia is on its knees and unable to fight back against its enemies. With the beginning of 2023, Armenia’s future remains blurry while the probability for resumption of large-scale conflict, or a total Armenian-Azerbaijani war, remains very high.

May 17, 2021July 18, 2023

Border Escalations in Syunik and Gegharkunik Provinces and the Coming Armenian-Turkish War

By Grigor Hakoyban

Summary:

Several days ago, Azerbaijani troops invaded Armenian territory in several directions. One direction that they intruded was towards Vardenis, another one towards Djermuk, third one towards Sisian, and the fourth one towards Goris by capturing most of the Sev Lich (Black Lake) and several hilltops around the lake that overlook strategic highway going through Armenia, which connects Yerevan to Goris and Goris to Khapan. The Azerbaijani contingent that captured Sev Lich was able to intrude into Armenia’s territory three and a half kilometers deep. The contingent was made up of several hundred Azerbaijani special forces without encountering any resistance. According to Armenia’s Ministry of Defense, the roads leading to the positions occupied by Azerbaijani troops on Ishxanasar Mountain are under Armenian control, making it harder for Azerbaijan to supply its forces on the mountain top. In the meantime, according to some political observers in Armenia, two Armenian military positions also positioned near the mountain top are presently surrounded by Azerbaijani troops.

Surprisingly, the Armenian armed forces didn’t fire any shots to stop the advancement of enemy troops or make any attempt to arrest them. According to undisclosed sources within Armenia’s military, the soldiers were orders not to shoot. It is somewhat surprising that so many enemy troops were able to intrude 3.5km deep into Armenia’s territory without meeting any resistance on the part of Armenian armed forces. Furthermore, the Russian border troops stationed in Syunik Province didn’t do anything to counter the intrusion despite the fact that the Azerbaijani forces have violated not only the border of Armenia but also the border that falls under the security responsibility of the CSTO, which Armenia is a member. That leads some political observers to assert that there is a secret agreement between Armenia, Russia, and Azerbaijan, that people do not know about, which allowed Azerbaijani troops to capture the mountain top without any fighting.

May 3, 2021August 14, 2023

Regional Aspects of Preparation for the Election Campaign in Armenia

By Hrachya Arzumanian

Summary:

Preparations for early elections in Armenia have entered the stage of forming political blocs. We can talk about three blocks representing oligarchic groups and a scattered patriotic field. Given the nature of the confrontation, it is impossible to exclude the emergence of a “joker” – an actor capable of radically changing the balance of power in the election campaign.

The geopolitical blitzkrieg of Russia and Turkey on the division of spheres of influence in the South Caucasus fails when other power centers are drawn into the confrontation. The pressure of the victor countries based on military logic is no longer enough to force Armenia to cede part of its state sovereignty over Syunik. In the current situation, Armenia has the opportunity to wait for qualitative changes in the region while maintaining the status of a democratic country.

April 12, 2021April 12, 2021

Early Elections in Armenia: Challenges and Opportunities

By Hrachya Arzumanian

Summary:

The ongoing self-organization processes allowed the Armenian society to move to the stage of forming larger socio-political associations based on micro-groups. Armenia’s current situation does not allow us to say whether the society will be able to form an alternative pole of social and political forces for early elections.

The Armenian government has created a situation of unfolding an image election campaign when the political struggle comes down to a clash of personalities who are symbols of the present and the previous government. The intention to speed up self-organization processes and the formation of an alternative pole force us to accept the proposed conditions for conducting an election campaign when time and resources become a critical parameter.

March 28, 2021March 31, 2021

Early Elections in Armenia in the Context of Deepening National Crisis

By Hrachya Arzumanian

Summary:

Recent opinion polls show that the 17+ political bloc has the support of several percent of the Armenian society and cannot claim any serious representation in parliament. The Armenian society does not accept the previous authorities and does not intend to vote for them. The same opinion polls show that most of the Armenian society does not accept other opposition political forces and politicians and intends not to participate in the elections in the absence of new and influential political and social forces, initiatives, and individuals. According to the principle of the previous and current authorities, the artificial division of the Armenian political field, the formation of an imaginary opposition is intended to hinder the emergence of influential socio-political forces capable of consolidating the Armenian society.

The decision to hold swift elections without making the necessary changes to the electoral legislation makes it possible to create conditions for the reproduction of power in a disoriented society. During the rally phase of the confrontation between the armed forces and the prime minister, the latter displayed its ability to resort to administrative resources. Such facts do not allow us to speak with confidence about the possibility of observing electoral procedures and rules during the election campaign and on election day.

March 17, 2021March 18, 2021

Prospects for Overcoming the Deepening Crisis of the Armenian Statehood

By Hrachya Arzumanian

Summary:

The deepening systemic crisis led to the armed forces’ involvement in Armenia’s socio-political processes, despite the fact that they were not ready to participate in this step. The army’s erroneous tactics allowed the Prime Minister to initiate the resignation process of the Chief of the General Staff, creating a regime of dual power that Armenia did not wholly overcome.

The fact that the Armenian society is in a state of psychological breakdown does not allow it to organize itself to influence the authorities’ political steps. The crisis is further aggravated by the Armenian state’s inability to control its borders and the victorious countries’ policy meant to weaken Armenia as much as possible by not allowing it to conduct an independent policy and participate in regional processes. The Third Republic’s critical weakness confronts the Armenian people with the choice of deciding to build a new state or abandoning the idea of reviving the Armenian statehood.

February 28, 2021March 18, 2021

Deepening Political Crisis in Armenia

By Hrachya Arzumanian

Summary:

Armenia struggles to get out of the deep crisis after the military defeat in the Artsakh war. In the last days of February, the political crisis developed into a state crisis, when it is now necessary to operate not only with the categories of political space but also of state sovereignty.

The deepening political crisis in Armenia is a consequence of a number of foreign and domestic political factors that can lead to a cumulative effect. Of the internal political factors, the decisive role is played by Armenia’s political leadership, whose motives cannot be assessed without conducting public, political, and judicial scrutiny. This is also true for a number of high-ranking political and military leaders who have been in power throughout the entire post-Soviet period of Armenia, including the 17+ political forces that are part of the alliance.

February 15, 2021July 18, 2023

Analysis of Post-War Armenia and the Way Forward

By Grigor Hakobyan

Summary:

November 9th, 2020 was not only the end of the active stage of hostilities between Armenian and Azerbaijani-Turkish armed forces on Artsakh’s territory but also the end of Armenia’s third republic, something that the present government doesn’t appear to realize. Presently, Armenia’s government doesn’t have the same public support that it had a few years ago and symbolizes Armenia’s defeat not only on the battlefield but also in the diplomatic arena. Armenia’s present political and geopolitical situation is similar to a drowning person with hands handcuffed behind his back on his way to hit the bottom of the pool. Attempting to break the handcuffs at this point and try to swim up to the surface will do more harm than good and become the cause of his eventual drowning. The solution to the present situation is to wait until it hits the bottom and then spring up towards the surface while breaking the handcuffs in the process. To accomplish that, the Armenian people must take their future into their own hands and through grassroots efforts, rebuild Armenia from the bottom up, shaking away its upper echelons of power who no longer represent the Armenian people and pursue foreign and false agendas to the detriment of Armenian people and the security of the Armenian state. The sooner Armenian people wake up, the more time they will have to change its present trajectory leading the country and the nation to its final demise.

February 3, 2021February 15, 2021

Post War Armenia and the Way Out of the Present Crisis

By Grigor Hakobyan

Editorial:

The abrupt, unexpected, and tragic end of the Forty-Four Day War in November of 2020 has left the Armenian nation scarred, humiliated, and further divided not only in Armenia but also in the diaspora. Continuous anti-Armenian actions taken by the present government of Armenia and its political leadership are further reinforcing the view that it is very incompetent, if not treasonous, to be able to lead the county out of the present crisis and undertake the necessary steps to strengthen Armenian statehood to be able to withstand the next crisis looming on the horizon. The longer it tries to hold on to power by increasingly resorting to authoritarian methods to suppress people’s discontent against its rule, the higher is the probability for the public uprising that will not be necessarily peaceful or forgiving.

January 31, 2021January 31, 2021

Trends in the Social and Political Life of Armenia and the Principles of Forming the Frame of the Armenian Statehood

By Hrachya Arzumanian

Summary

The Artsakh war continues to shape challenges and threats to the Armenian statehood. The most significant external factors of destabilization remain the policies of Russia and Turkey, which are interested in maintaining the condition of crisis instability in Armenia. Armenian politics and diplomacy must solve the problem of returning geopolitical and regional actors, pushed out by the war from the process of the Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) conflict settlement. However, Armenian politics and diplomacy remain reflexive, which is a consequence of the action of not only objective and institutional but also subjective factors.

Processes of socio-political self-organization are unfolding in Armenian society, which needs a catalyst and acceleration. Given the narrow horizons of strategic forecasting, one can only talk about the basic principles of the formation of the frame of the Armenian statehood, including the revision of relations with the diaspora, inclusiveness, and the construction of the “fortress Armenia” as an element of a broader system of security and development.

January 22, 2021January 22, 2021

Regional War or Economic Development: Challenges and Threats of the Moscow Summit

By Hrachya Arzumanian

Summary:

The summit in Moscow focused on issues of partial restoration of the region’s transport infrastructure, but not on military and political issues. The architecture of the region and the processes taking place in it are formed within the framework of two different logics: economic development and military. One can speak of the contradictory nature of the Moscow summit, when discussing the problems of economic development and infrastructure development, its participants operated with the categories of military logic. However, the formation of the future architecture of the region solely within the framework of military logic is doubtful, and the agreements reached are unstable, since they may conflict with the interests of other actors who did not participate in the summit.

January 9, 2021January 22, 2021

Legal Aspects of Relations Between Republics of Armenia and Artsakh: past, present and future

By Hrachya Arzumanyan

Summary:

The ceasefire of 2020 created a number of diplomatic and political problems in relations between Artsakh and Armenia and in the international arena. The relationship between the Republics of Armenia and Artsakh remained unregulated for the post-Soviet period when the Armenian state approached the war with uncertain legal status in relations between the two republics. Winning countries having resolved the problem of Artsakh within the framework of politics and the strategy of “fait accompli” which have formulated the results of the war that were signed by Armenia’s Prime Minister creating legal, diplomatic and political collision while disfranchising the residents of Artsakh from political and jurisdiction rights. The Armenian statehood and the government need to start formulating their approach to the problem of Artsakh’s status change and its residents, and towards the future of the Artsakh conflict regulation.

December 31, 2020December 31, 2020

Armenia’s Manifest Destiny

By Grigor Hakobyan

Summary:

The humiliating defeat of the Artsakh Defense Army and its supporting armed volunteer fighters from Armenia during the 44 Day War has prompted a lot of soul searching among Armenians around the world. The outcome of the war was very unexpected due to Armenia’s MoD’s false narrative, which consistently lied to people for the entire duration of the war, insisting that the Armenian side was winning the war only to find out later on that the Armenian side was losing the war. Illegal ceasefire declaration that was forced upon Armenia and dutifully implemented by the Pashinyan’s government as if it was a binding international treaty has outraged Armenians not only in the mainland but also abroad. Furthermore, ceding territories that were under Armenian control at the time of the ceasefire declaration despite the fact that the ceasefire declaration allowed each side to maintain territories under one’s control at the time of the signing of the infamous declaration has prompted legitimate concerns among Armenians everywhere that there were additional points of agreement between Pashinyan and Aliyev that the Armenian people were not told about.

December 22, 2020January 9, 2021

Analysis of Political Crisis in Armenia: current trends and possible resolutions

By Hrachya Arzumanian

Summary:

The crisis in Armenia continues to deepen and expand. Taking advantage of the Armenian government’s inability to control the situation in the country, Azerbaijan seeks to quickly solve the problem of demarcating the border with Armenia in its favor. After the Artsakh catastrophe, the society in Armenia has not been able to overcome the state of shock and the ruling political force has focused for more than a month on retaining power instead of addressing the military-political, socio-economic and moral-psychological challenges and threats to the Armenian people and their statehood.

The state of the army remains difficult, having to solve many critical problems urgently. First of all, there is the task of forming a new territorial defense system after the loss of the military infrastructure of Artsakh, which has been built for 25 years and cost the Armenian people several billion dollars. In the conditions of a temporary and unstable ceasefire, it is urgently necessary to make a defense system in Armenia capable of stopping the further advance of the Azerbaijani army under the pretext of border demarcation, etc.

December 18, 2020December 18, 2020

The Dilemma of War or International Law in the History of the Artsakh conflict

By Hrachya Arzumanian

The Dilemma of War or International Law in the History of the Artsakh conflict

By Hrachya Arzumanian

Summary:

Within the framework of the Artsakh war of 2020, the effectiveness of using war to solve the regional problem was clearly shown. In the 90s, when Azerbaijan was a failing state, the Nagorno-Karabakh issue could have been resolved by Armenia with large-scale military actions. The Azerbaijani army was retreating indiscriminately. However, the Armenian side agreed to switch to diplomatic settlement methods within the OSCE Minsk Group framework by agreeing to an indefinite ceasefire in 1994. Simultaneously, one of the conflict settlement philosophies’ principles was the exclusion of military force and the use of exclusively political and diplomatic methods.

December 10, 2020December 10, 2020

The Strategic Context of Relations Between Russia and Turkey in the South Caucasus and Eurasia

By Hrachya Arzumanian

Summary:

The existing strategic context of the South Caucasus makes it possible to speak about the tactical victory of Russia and the strategic victory of Turkey and Azerbaijan in the Artsakh war. Moreover, in this conflict Russia operated as a regional center of power while Turkey sought to increase its weight, claiming to be an actor in the geopolitical arena (1). Considering Russia’s experience of operating in the geopolitical arena a question arises-what could have been Russia’s ideological and strategic calculations when it made the decision to invite Turkey to solve the problems of the South Caucasus ?

December 8, 2020December 9, 2020

Brief Analysis of the Forty Four Day Armenian-Turkish War

By Grigor Hakobyan

Summary:

The defeat of the Artsakh Defense Army during the Forty Four Day War surprised the majority of Armenians around the world. Significant territorial and human losses were shocking not only to the people residing in the Republic of Armenia but also in the diaspora. The whole media coverage of the war both in Armenia and diaspora was primarily based on the official narrative created by Armenia’s MoD which claimed that the Armenian side was winning the war and that it was planning to go into a counteroffensive soon. Although the Armed Forces of Armenia have been acquiring offensive weapons for a while and were boasting about their ability to carry out preemptive strikes at any time, they choose to do so in reality the political leadership didn’t have the will and the military leadership couldn’t sustainably wage such an offensive war. Previous claims of military superiority created a false sense of security among people residing in Artsakh, the Republic of Armenia, and diaspora which contributed to the feelings of shock and dismay that they all experienced during the aftermath of this war.

November 30, 2020December 11, 2020

Strategic Context of 2020 Artsakh War

By Hrachya Arzumanian

Summary:

Russian strategic thought seeking to return Armenia and Azerbaijan to the orbit of its project with military tools while cutting off the possibility of another choice for the countries of the South Caucasus did not take into account the existence of an alternative in Azerbaijan. Instead of returning to the Russian project for the revival of USSR 2.0 / Russian Empire within the framework of which it was created, Azerbaijan chose to join the 21st century’s Turkish project to revive the Ottoman Empire. In other words, speaking of Russia’s unconditional tactical victory in the region one should also speak of Turkey’s strategic victory and Russia’s loss of positions. Russia has created the necessary preconditions for conducting irregular and hybrid military operations outside of the theater of operations of the Middle East/North Africa on Russian territory by its own efforts.

Russia, having developed and implemented a project to dismantle the de facto state of Artsakh and form an even tighter dependence of Armenia upon Russia created the necessary conditions for the emergence of a regional power center led by a NATO member in the South Caucasus and its southern borders. Moreover, we are talking about ideologically motivated Turkey (neo-Ottomanism, Pan-Turkism, Islamism), which a number of de-ideologized Russian people are ready to meet with a standing ovation in a number of Russia’s regions and in Central Asia the integrity of which today is maintained exclusively by the idea of conservation of Eurasia within the realities of the 20th century.

October 10, 2020October 10, 2020

Armenian-Turkish War: Review and Analysis

By Grigor Hakobyan

Summary:

While the American mainstream media was busy discussing the fly on Mike Pence’s head during Vice Presidential Debate, the Armenian-Turkish conflict entered the second week of violence across the entire line of contact (LoC) between the Republic of Artsakh and Azerbaijan as many regional and extra-regional powers have taken a neutral stand and watch attentively from the sidelines. An attempt by Azerbaijani-Turkish and ISIS-linked formations to encircle Artsakh by taking over its strategic communication highways with the Republic of Armenia while carrying out devastating blows against the Artsakh’s Defense Army in a new and enhanced blitzkrieg strategy has failed dramatically. The Anti-Armenian coalition led by Turkish generals got bogged down in the north and south of Artsakh as the scale of the attack begins to whimper and exhale its last breath. Armenian churches, towns and villages now bear the brunt of a losing barbarian who willingly sacrifices the lives of his own citizens to sustain his bloodthirsty rule in Baku.