By Grigor Hakobyan
Summary:
Six months into 2026 and a lot has already happened for Armenia. First, Armenia showcased its indigenously made weapons during Republic Day Parade on May 28 and during RISE (Research, Innovation, Science, and Engineering) event organized by Silicon Mountains in Yerevan with plenty of surprises for many. Second, despite Russian-led election interference and imposition of economic embargo against Armenia, the people of Armenia held peaceful parliamentary elections which was recognized by international observers as mostly free and fair, and therefore legitimate. Third, new military partnerships and economic opportunities opened up for Armenia after it finished signing strategic partnership agreements with the EU, the United States, and French Republic in addition to other countries who did the same, during the 8th Summit of the European Political Community event held in Yerevan on 4 May. Growing tourism revenues and foreign investments in Armenia further contributed to Armenia’s steady economic growth as the leading economy in the region.
Background:
Early in May, delegations from more than 40 countries in Europe and Canada visited Armenia for the European Political Community Summit in Yerevan. The event contributed to Armenia’s growing tourism sector as Armenia remained one of the leading topics of European TV programs for almost a week. Additionally, direct flights from UK to Armenia began early in May, bringing more visitors to Armenia, the tiniest country in the region. A county of 3 million hosted more than 1 million visitors where a growing number of them were of non-Armenian descent. The European Summit was followed by a visit of Emanuel Macron to Yerevan and Gyumri, culminating in the signing of strategic cooperation agreements between Armenia and France in the areas of economy, military cooperation and high tech.
Shortly after, a visit by the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio culminated in the signing of strategic cooperation agreements between Armenia and the United States envisioning direct American investments in Armenia’s economy, particularly in American TRIPP project and collaboration in areas of defense, security and high tech. Before the ink could dry up, the U.S.-based AI cloud company called Firebird.AI began building a massive AI data center and supercomputing hub in Armenia, with an estimated investment of up to $4 billion. It is going to be the only such center in the region for the foreseeable future. Historic visit by the U.S. Vice President JD Vance to Armenia back in February has elevated the relationship between the two countries to a higher level, which was soon followed by Armenia’s acquisition of U.S. made drones and other military hardware.
Signing of strategic partnership agreement between Armenia and the EU allowed Armenia to compensate for the economic losses incurred as a result of Russia’s economic embargo against Armenia who is trying to punish the country for its geopolitical tilt toward the West as it is drifting away from Russia’s control. Specifically, the EU opened up its markets for the importation of agricultural products from Armenia that were originally designated to be exported to Russia. Furthermore, despite active political interference by Russia in Armenia’s parliamentary elections, more than 60% of Armenian citizens eligible to vote took part in the elections, which was the highest participation rate in decades. The results showed that the majority of Armenian citizens support closer integration with the West and no longer consider Russia as its number one strategic partner for security and defense.
Analysis and Recommendations:
Armenia’s diversification of its economic ties and military acquisitions contributed to the strengthening of Armenia’s military capacity and the development of new military capabilities that it hasn’t had before. Last year, the government of Armenia invested nearly $500 million in the development of Armenia’s military industrial complex which allowed the emergency of more than 40 local companies that produce almost everything, short of tanks and aircrafts. In fact, Armenia began exporting its military products abroad as more consumers in the West become aware of Armenia’s growing military-industrial complex that can rival its immediate neighbors in the region. Armenia’s Republic Day Parade on May 28th and subsequent showcase of Armenian military equipment during RISE event led by Silicon Mountains corporation in Yerevan have shown that Armenia’s military producers are not far behind its western and eastern counterparts who have showcased their military equipment around the world.
Military reforms in Armenia began in 2021, soon after 44 Day War with Azerbaijan, when the military and political establishments of Armenia realized that most of their weapons acquired from Russia and former Soviet Union were not effective anymore in light of technologically advance wars of the 21st century. Drones that cost less than $500 to make were able to destroy military equipment worth millions of dollars within seconds. Lack of modern military equipment, heavy reliance on Russia for military hardware that never got to Armenia despite multi-million-dollar contracts between 2018-2020, showed that Russia was no longer a reliable source of procurements for country’s defense and security. Russia’s refusal to honor its defense and security treaties with Armenia during Azerbaijani incursions into Armenia’s territory between 2020-2023 has pushed Armenia and its people to seek military assistance elsewhere.
Growing military ties between Armenia and other countries such as the United States, France, Germany, Great Britain, India, Iran, China, Greece, Poland and others, along with the EU, has contributed to building of military capacity for Armenia which allows the country to stand up for itself effectively and resolutely. The bad experience of fighting with closed borders during the 44 Day War pushed Armenia to rapidly develop its own military industrial complex which precludes a repetition of such an event from significantly affecting Armenia’s defense capabilities in time of war. In fact, developing military capacity of its own should have been the most important part of Armenia’s development as a country when it declared its independence in 1991. Unfortunately, the corruption within the Armenia’s military establishment and its political elite since the beginning of its independence, in essence, set up the country for a catastrophic failure in the future, which Armenia got to experience between 2020-2023.
Presently, Armenia has significantly diversified its military procurements away from total reliance on Russia and gave rise to its own military industrial base which is capable of equipping Armenia with everything it needs, short of tanks and combat aircrafts. It has been able to manufacture a large assortment of domestically manufactured combat drones, mortars, armor vehicles, small arms and munitions of all kinds. Furthermore, Armenia made significant progress in incorporating AI into its own UGV (unmanned ground vehicles) and modular weapon platforms that can strike its opponents with great speed and accuracy. Domestically manufactured MLRS (multiple launch rocket systems) are capable of striking its targets at a distance of 100-150 km (62.14 to 93.21 miles), while its UAV (unmanned aerial vehicles) are capable of striking its targets with great accuracy as far as 300 km (186.41 mi) distance.
A lot of work has been done in developing ground and air-defense radars as well, but it is not over yet. Furthermore, Armenia’s fleet of aging tanks (Soviet made T-72 variants and Russian made T-90) and combat aircrafts (Soviet made Su-25 and Su-27 variants) have not undergone significant replacements yet and require more attention. More capable western variants such as German, French, Swedish or South Korean tanks should be considered. Similarly, western fighter jets such as French Dassault Rafale, American F-16, or Swedish Saab JAS 39 Gripen should be considered. While India offers more affordable variants, such as Su-30MKI and HAL Tejas (LCA) MK-1, they are not as readily available for purchase as their western counterparts discussed above. South Korean variants, such as KAI KF-21 and FA-50 should be considered as well.
Conclusion:
Family run dictatorship in Azerbaijan and pro-Russian leadership in Georgia made Armenia the most pro-Western country in the region which greatly contributed to its economic growth and political support from the West. Growing portfolio of large foreign direct investments and growing tourism to Armenia will continue to increase if Armenia maintains its pro-Western course and do not resort to the fate of its immediate neighbors. Despite many reservations, presently Armenia is the most democratic country in the region that is swiftly integrating with the West. Russian gambit to keep Armenia under its full control via unending territorial disputes and ethnic conflict is slowly falling apart. Failure to aid Armenia in its defense during Azerbaijani miliary aggressions in 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023 are bearing its fruit. Fewer people in Armenia consider Russia a trustworthy defense and security partner as they shift their focus towards the West.