The New Geopolitical Map of Near East

By Grigor Hakobyan
6/24/2017

Summary:

As the dramatic events unfold in the Middle East a new map of Near East is beginning to emerge. A new country is about to take stage in the region; a clash between major powers is about to  break loose in Syria; and new strategic realignment of regional powers and their corresponding super powers is taking shape while others are exiting the region. In the meantime a rift is emerging between the US and its European allies over many issues including global warming, economic relations and security within Europe and around the European continent. How will these changes impact Armenia and what role it can play in the big picture that is unfolding in the Near East? What is most likely to happen and is Armenia ready for what is coming within next twenty four to thirty six months ?

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In Anticipation of Another War

By Grigor Hakobyan
02/19/2017

Summary

As the one year anniversary of the Four Day War in April of 2016 is fast approaching so is the military escalation along the frontlines in Artsakh gradually intensifying. Almost no week goes by without human losses suffered on either side of the unresolved conflict. Relative military parity established by the warring sides since last war coupled with a cold winter and barely passable roads in the region seemed to have deterred new Azerbaijani military aggression from resuming thus far, however as the weather warms up in addition to declining oil output and devaluation of the manat-Azerbaijani currency, and new accumulations of military capabilities by Azerbaijani military, Armenian armed forces are expecting to face yet another violent attempt by Aliyev’s government in Baku to forcefully change the status quo on the ground either this year or within next two years. We will examine a number of most likely scenarios for the resumption of the war in the region and their most likely outcomes in this article by taking into account present factors at play both regionally and internationally.

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