Avoiding Worst Case Scenario

By Grigor Hakobyan



Recent geopolitical developments taking place in the region have created a number of opportunities and challenges for Armenia’s national security. However, despite a multitude of threats facing Armenia presently and in a near future it is very hard to find an analysis that will consider at least one of many worst case scenarios. If the past is any guide Armenia has experienced worst case scenarios before where the loss of statehood, genocide, wars and significant territorial losses have shaken the Armenian nation and Armenian statehood at its core.

Looking in retrospect, if our ancestors have anticipated at least a couple of worst case scenarios and prepared themselves accordingly to avert them several years and/or decades beforehand then many lives could have been saved and possibly better historical outcomes could have been achieved in less time and with fewer deaths. Following the same logic, it is the argument of this article that better preparedness right now both in Armenia and Armenian diaspora can help the nation at large to shape better historical outcomes for our descendants in a near future. The following scenario is one of many possible worst case scenarios that resembles the course of events that transpired at the beginning of the twentieth century.

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Nakhijevan-Armenia’s Clear and Present Danger


By Grigor Hakobyan



Despite the fact that joint military training between Azerbaijani and Turkish forces has officially ended, large accumulations of military personnel and equipment in Nakhijevan continues unabated. Presently about 20,000 Azerbaijani soldiers and more than five hundred pieces of military equipment are positioned in an area of 2,100 sq. miles at a distance of nearly 60km from Yerevan. The long-range capabilities of military hardware in question present a direct and immediate danger to the security of Armenia and must be immediately neutralized. Hesitation on the part of Armenian military establishment to address the threat as soon as possible may have significantly negative consequences for Armenia’s security later on. The longer it takes for Armenia to respond the more severe will be the consequences of such belated defense actions.

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Azerbaijani Hubris and the Coming End of Aliyev’s Regime

The Khrizantema-S (Photo: militaryedge.org)

By Grigor Hakobyan



Recent revelations by Bulgarian newspaper (Trud) of connections between Aliyev’s regime and the state-run Silk Way Airlines accused of shipping weapons and ammunition to various terrorist groups in the Middle East under diplomatic cover were hurriedly pushed under the rug by Azerbaijan’s MOD announcement and video footage of newly acquired military hardware from Russia, followed by its regular war rhetoric to take back Artsakh through military means. Similar tactics were utilized by Azerbajiani media last year, preceding the Four Day War in April of 2016 when international media was awash with revelations about billions of dollars’ worth of offshore accounts held by a number of foreign leaders, including Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev.

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It is Time to End Aliyev’s Regime

By Grigor Hakobyan


Constant violations of ceasefire along the Line of Contact culminated in a failed Azerbajiani military aggression against the Republic of Artsakh on April 2nd of 2016. The incident came to be known as the Four Day War in Armenia which ended on April 6, 2016 at the behest of Aliyev’s regime in light of a powerful and devastating Armenian military response in conjunction with immense pressure by the international community demanding from Azerbaijan to end the war as soon as possible. The war resulted in more than one hundred deaths on Armenian side and several times more on Azerbaijani side which managed to take over a couple of Armenian military positions in the north and south of Artsakh.

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