Nakhijevan-Armenia’s Clear and Present Danger

 

By Grigor Hakobyan

9/2/2017

Summary:

Despite the fact that joint military training between Azerbaijani and Turkish forces has officially ended, large accumulations of military personnel and equipment in Nakhijevan continues unabated. Presently about 20,000 Azerbaijani soldiers and more than five hundred pieces of military equipment are positioned in an area of 2,100 sq. miles at a distance of nearly 60km from Yerevan. The long-range capabilities of military hardware in question present a direct and immediate danger to the security of Armenia and must be immediately neutralized. Hesitation on the part of Armenian military establishment to address the threat as soon as possible may have significantly negative consequences for Armenia’s security later on. The longer it takes for Armenia to respond the more severe will be the consequences of such belated defense actions.

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Azerbaijani Hubris and the Coming End of Aliyev’s Regime

The Khrizantema-S (Photo: militaryedge.org)

By Grigor Hakobyan

7/20/2017

SUMMARY:

Recent revelations by Bulgarian newspaper (Trud) of connections between Aliyev’s regime and the state-run Silk Way Airlines accused of shipping weapons and ammunition to various terrorist groups in the Middle East under diplomatic cover were hurriedly pushed under the rug by Azerbaijan’s MOD announcement and video footage of newly acquired military hardware from Russia, followed by its regular war rhetoric to take back Artsakh through military means. Similar tactics were utilized by Azerbajiani media last year, preceding the Four Day War in April of 2016 when international media was awash with revelations about billions of dollars’ worth of offshore accounts held by a number of foreign leaders, including Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev.

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The New Geopolitical Map of Near East

By Grigor Hakobyan
6/24/2017

Summary:

As the dramatic events unfold in the Middle East a new map of Near East is beginning to emerge. A new country is about to take stage in the region; a clash between major powers is about to  break loose in Syria; and new strategic realignment of regional powers and their corresponding super powers is taking shape while others are exiting the region. In the meantime a rift is emerging between the US and its European allies over many issues including global warming, economic relations and security within Europe and around the European continent. How will these changes impact Armenia and what role it can play in the big picture that is unfolding in the Near East? What is most likely to happen and is Armenia ready for what is coming within next twenty four to thirty six months ?

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In Anticipation of Another War

By Grigor Hakobyan
02/19/2017

Summary

As the one year anniversary of the Four Day War in April of 2016 is fast approaching so is the military escalation along the frontlines in Artsakh gradually intensifying. Almost no week goes by without human losses suffered on either side of the unresolved conflict. Relative military parity established by the warring sides since last war coupled with a cold winter and barely passable roads in the region seemed to have deterred new Azerbaijani military aggression from resuming thus far, however as the weather warms up in addition to declining oil output and devaluation of the manat-Azerbaijani currency, and new accumulations of military capabilities by Azerbaijani military, Armenian armed forces are expecting to face yet another violent attempt by Aliyev’s government in Baku to forcefully change the status quo on the ground either this year or within next two years. We will examine a number of most likely scenarios for the resumption of the war in the region and their most likely outcomes in this article by taking into account present factors at play both regionally and internationally.

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