Avoiding Worst Case Scenario

By Grigor Hakobyan



Recent geopolitical developments taking place in the region have created a number of opportunities and challenges for Armenia’s national security. However, despite a multitude of threats facing Armenia presently and in a near future it is very hard to find an analysis that will consider at least one of many worst case scenarios. If the past is any guide Armenia has experienced worst case scenarios before where the loss of statehood, genocide, wars and significant territorial losses have shaken the Armenian nation and Armenian statehood at its core.

Looking in retrospect, if our ancestors have anticipated at least a couple of worst case scenarios and prepared themselves accordingly to avert them several years and/or decades beforehand then many lives could have been saved and possibly better historical outcomes could have been achieved in less time and with fewer deaths. Following the same logic, it is the argument of this article that better preparedness right now both in Armenia and Armenian diaspora can help the nation at large to shape better historical outcomes for our descendants in a near future. The following scenario is one of many possible worst case scenarios that resembles the course of events that transpired at the beginning of the twentieth century.

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