Analysis of Political Crisis in Armenia: current trends and possible resolutions

By Hrachya Arzumanian

Summary:

The crisis in Armenia continues to deepen and expand. Taking advantage of the Armenian government’s inability to control the situation in the country, Azerbaijan seeks to quickly solve the problem of demarcating the border with Armenia in its favor. After the Artsakh catastrophe, the society in Armenia has not been able to overcome the state of shock and the ruling political force has focused for more than a month on retaining power instead of addressing the military-political, socio-economic and moral-psychological challenges and threats to the Armenian people and their statehood.

The state of the army remains difficult, having to solve many critical problems urgently. First of all, there is the task of forming a new territorial defense system after the loss of the military infrastructure of Artsakh, which has been built for 25 years and cost the Armenian people several billion dollars. In the conditions of a temporary and unstable ceasefire, it is urgently necessary to make a defense system in Armenia capable of stopping the further advance of the Azerbaijani army under the pretext of border demarcation, etc.

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The Dilemma of War or International Law in the History of the Artsakh conflict

By Hrachya Arzumanian

The Dilemma of War or International Law in the History of the Artsakh conflict

By Hrachya Arzumanian

Summary:

Within the framework of the Artsakh war of 2020, the effectiveness of using war to solve the regional problem was clearly shown. In the 90s, when Azerbaijan was a failing state, the Nagorno-Karabakh issue could have been resolved by Armenia with large-scale military actions. The Azerbaijani army was retreating indiscriminately. However, the Armenian side agreed to switch to diplomatic settlement methods within the OSCE Minsk Group framework by agreeing to an indefinite ceasefire in 1994. Simultaneously, one of the conflict settlement philosophies’ principles was the exclusion of military force and the use of exclusively political and diplomatic methods.

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The Strategic Context of Relations Between Russia and Turkey in the South Caucasus and Eurasia

By Hrachya Arzumanian

Summary:

The existing strategic context of the South Caucasus makes it possible to speak about the tactical victory of Russia and the strategic victory of Turkey and Azerbaijan in the Artsakh war. Moreover, in this conflict Russia operated as a regional center of power while Turkey sought to increase its weight, claiming to be an actor in the geopolitical arena (1). Considering Russia’s experience of operating in the geopolitical arena a question arises-what could have been Russia’s ideological and strategic calculations when it made the decision to invite Turkey to solve the problems of the South Caucasus ?

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Brief Analysis of the Forty Four Day Armenian-Turkish War

By Grigor Hakobyan

Summary:

The defeat of the Artsakh Defense Army during the Forty Four Day War surprised the majority of Armenians around the world. Significant territorial and human losses were shocking not only to the people residing in the Republic of Armenia but also in the diaspora. The whole media coverage of the war both in Armenia and diaspora was primarily based on the official narrative created by Armenia‚Äôs MoD which claimed that the Armenian side was winning the war and that it was planning to go into a counteroffensive soon. Although the Armed Forces of Armenia have been acquiring offensive weapons for a while and were boasting about their ability to carry out preemptive strikes at any time, they choose to do so in reality the political leadership didn’t have the will and the military leadership couldn’t sustainably wage such an offensive war. Previous claims of military superiority created a false sense of security among people residing in Artsakh, the Republic of Armenia, and diaspora which contributed to the feelings of shock and dismay that they all experienced during the aftermath of this war.

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