Ararat Institute for Near Eastern Studies

By Grigor Hakobyan

Summary: 

           Armenia’s foreign policy lacks clear objectives, while its military reforms are very slow and do not go deep enough to build an effective, new military ready to take on the challenges of 21st-century warfare. Government corruption and abuse of power by various government officials are still widespread. Meanwhile, those with significant financial resources and political clout easily avoid criminal persecution and facing time in prison for their misdeeds. Political opposition in Armenia is weak and lacks the support and trust of the majority of the country’s citizens. Those considered radical oppositionists are often harassed by the country’s various law enforcement agencies and face continuous political pressure and persecution. Furthermore, the presence of more than 100 political parties in a country of nearly three million doesn’t allow for the majority of Armenia’s populace to come together around a few common principles and strategic goals that will be vital for Armenia’s national security and development. 

If these dangerous trends continue unabated, Armenia will not be ready to effectively counter the subsequent Azerbaijani-Turkish aggression against its national sovereignty or provide much-needed security to its fellow Armenian citizens residing in the Republic of Artsakh. Failure to clearly understand the scope and depth of the regional and global dynamics associated with the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict by present authorities in Yerevan and unnecessary rush to make a peace deal with Azerbaijan at any expense will cost Armenia dearly soon afterward. Furthermore, the recognition of Artsakh as part of Azerbaijan by present authorities in Armenia has derailed the work of the Minsk Group and other international actors and platforms which allowed and advocated for Artsakh’s right to self-determination. This dangerous development may also lead to the finale of the Armenian Genocide that began in the last century, during WW-1, resulting in the elimination of all Armenians in Artsakh and the destruction of all the Armenian cultural heritage in the region. 

Continue reading “The Coming Genocide of Armenians in Artsakh and How to Avert It”

By Grigor Hakobyan

Summary:

In 2022, the Pashinyan government failed to develop a comprehensive foreign policy, restore the trust of the Armenian diaspora and most of Armenia’s citizens towards the government in Armenia, or acquire new allies to enhance the security of Armenia. Furthermore, it failed to fully restore Armenia’s military capabilities or register any significant accomplishments in the foreign policy arena. The last two years were marked by substantial territorial losses by the Republic of Armenia and the unpreparedness of the Armenian leadership, both military and political, to take adequate steps to defend the territorial integrity of the Republic of Armenia.

The political incompetence of the Pashinyan government and failure to take advantage of various geopolitical dynamics unfolding in the region has further undermined the security of the Armenian Republic. Unless the government in Armenia changes and the fake “opposition” forces cede the ground to real political opposition forces, both will continue dragging Armenia down until Armenia is on its knees and unable to fight back against its enemies. With the beginning of 2023, Armenia’s future remains blurry while the probability for resumption of large-scale conflict, or a total Armenian-Azerbaijani war, remains very high. 

Continue reading “Armenian-Turkish Conflict 2022-2023: Review and Outlook”

By Grigor Hakoyban

Summary:

            Several days ago, Azerbaijani troops invaded Armenian territory in several directions. One direction that they intruded was towards Vardenis, another one towards Djermuk, third one towards Sisian, and the fourth one towards Goris by capturing most of the Sev Lich (Black Lake) and several hilltops around the lake that overlook strategic highway going through Armenia, which connects Yerevan to Goris and Goris to Khapan. The Azerbaijani contingent that captured Sev Lich was able to intrude into Armenia’s territory three and a half kilometers deep. The contingent was made up of several hundred Azerbaijani special forces without encountering any resistance. According to Armenia’s Ministry of Defense, the roads leading to the positions occupied by Azerbaijani troops on Ishxanasar Mountain are under Armenian control, making it harder for Azerbaijan to supply its forces on the mountain top. In the meantime, according to some political observers in Armenia, two Armenian military positions also positioned near the mountain top are presently surrounded by Azerbaijani troops.

            Surprisingly, the Armenian armed forces didn’t fire any shots to stop the advancement of enemy troops or make any attempt to arrest them. According to undisclosed sources within Armenia’s military, the soldiers were orders not to shoot. It is somewhat surprising that so many enemy troops were able to intrude 3.5km deep into Armenia’s territory without meeting any resistance on the part of Armenian armed forces. Furthermore, the Russian border troops stationed in Syunik Province didn’t do anything to counter the intrusion despite the fact that the Azerbaijani forces have violated not only the border of Armenia but also the border that falls under the security responsibility of the CSTO, which Armenia is a member. That leads some political observers to assert that there is a secret agreement between Armenia, Russia, and Azerbaijan, that people do not know about, which allowed Azerbaijani troops to capture the mountain top without any fighting.

Continue reading “Border Escalations in Syunik and Gegharkunik Provinces and the Coming Armenian-Turkish War”

By Hrachya Arzumanian

Summary:

Preparations for early elections in Armenia have entered the stage of forming political blocs. We can talk about three blocks representing oligarchic groups and a scattered patriotic field. Given the nature of the confrontation, it is impossible to exclude the emergence of a “joker” – an actor capable of radically changing the balance of power in the election campaign.

The geopolitical blitzkrieg of Russia and Turkey on the division of spheres of influence in the South Caucasus fails when other power centers are drawn into the confrontation. The pressure of the victor countries based on military logic is no longer enough to force Armenia to cede part of its state sovereignty over Syunik. In the current situation, Armenia has the opportunity to wait for qualitative changes in the region while maintaining the status of a democratic country.

Continue reading “Regional Aspects of Preparation for the Election Campaign in Armenia”